India election results 2024 live updates: Modi widely expected to win historic third term as BJP eyes two-thirds majority

Hannah Ellis-Petersen

While Modi is predicted to win a large majority, the election campaign has also raised uncomfortable issues for the prime minister, particularly relating to sky high unemployment, particularly for young people, and inequality which has soared to unprecedented levels over the past decade.

We reported from the state of Maharashtra on whether India’s economic story over the past decade is as golden as Modi claims it is:

• The BJP’s manifesto promises a national code that will replace religion-specific civil laws in the country, a move many Muslims say is aimed at curbing centuries-old religious practices that the minority follows. Currently, Indians from different religions can follow laws specific to their faith or opt for a secular code. Laws on who and how many people a person can marry, how to end a marriage, and inheritance differ by religion. The new code will spell out the same set of rules for everyone.

• After Modi inaugurated a temple to the Hindu God Ram at a fiercely contested site earlier this year, fulfilling a long-held promise, party leaders have said another emphatic electoral victory would help them build temples on other disputed sites. Hindu groups have for long claimed that for centuries Muslim invaders built mosques over demolished Hindu temples. Courts are hearing cases against two such mosques in BJP-run Uttar Pradesh state: in Modi’s Varanasi constituency and in Mathura.

• Modi’s party has promised to implement an official report recommending elections to India‘s 28 state assemblies and national parliament at the same time, every five years. Currently, state elections do not need to coincide with national elections, leading to a situation where the country hosts one election or another every few months.

• Modi’s party also promises to maintain peace in the nation’s northeast, without mentioning the BJP-run and violence-torn state of Manipur where ethnic clashes have killed at least 220 people and displaced thousands. Many state residents say there is widespread disappointment over the inability of Modi’s government to end what critics have called a mixture of anarchy and civil war. Rahul Gandhi, Modi’s key rival from the Congress party, has repeatedly questioned Modi’s failure to visit the state despite the prolonged conflict.

Who is Narendra Modi?

Hannah Ellis-Petersen

There is little doubt among Indians that Narendra Damodardas Modi’s 10 years in power have already left an indelible mark on the country. To some it is the optimistic story of India rising to become the world’s fastest-growing economy, courted by powerful western leaders and multinational corporations; of efficient governance and technological advancements that have benefitted the public; and of the country freeing itself from the politics of elites and the “chains of colonisers” while reclaiming its historic Hindu civilisational greatness.

Yet to others it is a story of democratic backsliding and growing authoritarianism; of crony capitalism and a growing chasm between rich and poor; of the erosion of freedom of the media and judicial independence; attacks on secularism, liberal institutions and civil society; of publicly condoned Islamophobia and growing state-sponsored persecution of minorities, primarily India’s 200 million Muslims.

Such is the power of “brand Modi” that the BJP sits firmly in the shadow of its strongman leader. Modi’s face and name are attached to almost every government welfare scheme, and are visible on every government poster and even on people’s food rations and Covid vaccination certificates. The prime minister primarily refers to himself in the third person in speeches and will often address the people as “Modi ka parivar” [Modi’s family]. The party’s election manifesto was simply named “Modi’s guarantee”.

According to Modi’s biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, even as a child Modi displayed traits that would later define his political career. Recalling a conversation with one of Modi’s teachers from his time at school, Mukhopadhyay said: “Modi liked theatre a lot in school, but would only do leading roles. If he did not have the main role, he would not perform in that play. It’s a small glimpse into how he has always put himself at the centre of his own universe.”

Modi was born in 1950 in a small town in northern Gujarat, as the third of six children, to a poor, lower caste family. Growing up, their house did not have electricity and his father produced cooking oil and ran a small tea shop next to the local railway station.

It was as an eight-year-old child that Modi first wandered into the offices of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the rightwing Hindu paramilitary organisation that has worked for almost a century to push India towards becoming a Hindu state.

To this day, over six decades on, RSS ideology remains the foundation of Modi’s political beliefs and his agenda as prime minister. Under his two terms, militant Hindu nationalism has become the dominant political ideology in India, while core RSS policies have been brought to fruition and RSS figures are present in almost all main institutions.

Just under an hour into the count the bloc led by Modi’s BJP is leading in 272 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s 178 seats.

Modi has set a target for the NDA bloc, led by the BJP, of winning 400 of the 543 seats, well over the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution.

While it is unlikely that the opposition INDIA bloc will win a majority, it will be hoping to win at least 181 seats to prevent a two-thirds majority for the NDA.

At least 33 Indian polling staff died on the last day of voting from heatstroke in just one state, a top election official said Sunday, after scorching temperatures gripped swathes of the country.

While there have been reports of multiple deaths from the intense heatwave – with temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in many places – the dozens of staff dying in one day marks an especially grim toll.

The India Meteorological Department said temperatures at Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh reached 46.9C (116F).

Navdeep Rinwa, chief electoral officer for the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where voting in the seventh and final stage of elections ended Saturday, said 33 polling personnel died due to the heat.

The figure included security guards and sanitation staff.

“A monetary compensation of 1.5 million rupees ($18,000) will be provided to the families of the deceased,” Rinwa told reporters.

India’s six-week election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, but also in the “unprecedented” scale of online disinformation, APF reports.

The biggest democratic exercise in history brought with it a surge of false social media posts and instant messaging, ranging from doctored videos to unrelated images with false captions.

Raqib Hameed Naik, from the US-based India Hate Lab, said they had “witnessed an unprecedented scale of disinformation” in the elections.

“Conspiracy theories… were vigorously promoted to deepen the communal divide,” said Naik, whose organisation researches hate speech and disinformation.

With seven stages of voting stretched over six weeks, AFP factcheckers carried out 40 election-related debunks across India’s political divide.

There were fake videos of Bollywood stars endorsing the opposition, as well as those purporting to show one person casting multiple votes. Some were crude or poked fun. Others were far more sinister and sophisticated productions aimed to deliberately mislead.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance, the NDA bloc, is enjoying an early lead as votes are counted, pulling ahead in 154 seats of the total 543 in the lower house of parliament.

Early trends show the opposition INDIA alliance leading in 120 seats.

The first votes counted are postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty.

This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.

What will a two-thirds majority mean for India’s future?

Hannah Ellis-Petersen

According to some exit polls, Modi and the BJP could be headed for a two-thirds majority in parliament, giving them an even stronger victory than in the 2019 elections.

Should the BJP achieve such a historic win, it could have far-reaching consequences for India’s future. The greatest fear among many is that this would enable the BJP to have the votes to amend India’s constitution, which currently enshrines India as a secular democracy where all religions are regarded as equal.

But during his decade in power, Modi and the BJP have pursued a Hindu nationalist agenda, an ideological project which believes India should be a Hindu state. Opponents say that the ultimate aim of the BJP would be to remove references to secularism from the constitution document, reshaping India – particularly for its minorities – forever. Modi has denied he plans to change the constitution but during the campaign several BJP candidates spoke of the need to get a two-thirds majority in order to protect India as a nation for Hindus.

“We have created a world record of 642 million proud Indian voters. This is a historic moment,” Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar told reporters on Monday.

Although the 2024 turnout is higher than the 612 million voters who cast their ballots in 2019, it is about one percentage point lower than the 67.4% turnoutin 2019.

Analysts have partly blamed the lower turnout on a searing heatwave across northern India with temperatures in excess of 45C (113F).

At least 33 polling staff died from heatstroke on Saturday in Uttar Pradesh state alone, where temperatures hit 46.9C (116.4F).

Polling should have been scheduled to end a month earlier, Kumar acknowledged. “We should not have done it in so much heat”, he said.

Before counting even began the BJP had won one seat, in the constituency of Surat, where Mukesh Dalal, from the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), won the seat by default after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out of the race. It was the first time in 73 years that Surat’s candidate was appointed, not elected.

Guardian correspondent Hannah Ellis-Petersen reported at the time: Surat is not the only constituency in Gujarat to witness swathes of candidates going up against the BJP suddenly withdrawing from the race. In Gandhinagar, where Amit Shah, the home minister and prime minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man, is running, 16 opposition candidates dropped out before last Tuesday’s voting.

With counting underway for just 10 minutes, the NDA bloc, led by Modi and his BJP, is leading in 11 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s four seats.

Along with the electronic record of each vote cast through the Electronic Voting Machines, a corresponding paper slip is also produced, which is visible to the voter, and then stored in a sealed box.

The poll watchdog, the Electoral Commission of India (ECI), counts and verifies these paper slips against electronic votes at five randomly selected polling stations – drawn by lots – in different segments of each constituency.

While critics and some members of civil society, including some political parties, want verification to be done at more booths to increase transparency, the Supreme Court has declined to order any change in the vote-counting process.

The ECI has dismissed allegations that EVMs can be tampered, calling them foolproof.

Vote counting is now underway at counting stations in India’s 543 constituencies. Paper ballots, cast by those who cannot vote electronically, will be counted first. Then electronic votes will be counted. These are cast on electronic voting machines, which have been used since 2,000.

Results are announced for each constituency as soon as counting is completed. India follows the first-past-the-post system, under which a candidate with the highest number of votes wins, regardless of garnering a majority or not.

Result trends generally become clear by the afternoon of counting day and are flashed on television news networks. The official count from the Election Commission of India can come hours later.

In past years, key trends have been clear by mid-afternoon with losers conceding defeat, even though full and final results may only come late on Tuesday night.

Celebrations are expected at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP if the results reflect exit poll predictions.

The winners of the general election are expected to form a new government by the middle of June.

After the ECI announces the results for all 543 seats, the president invites the leader of the party, or an alliance, which has more than half the seats to form the government.

The party or coalition with 272 or more seats then chooses a prime minister to lead the government.

Vote counting in India is decentralised and done simultaneously at counting stations in each of the 543 constituencies around the country.

Counting is set to begin at 8 am (02.30 GMT) with the tallying of postal ballots that only select groups can use, including people with disabilities, or those involved in essential services including security forces and some government officials.

After paper ballots, votes from the Electronic Voting Machines are counted. India has used the machines since 2000, moving away from paper ballots for national and state elections.

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of India’s election results with me, Helen Sullivan.

This election was the largest in world history, with almost a billion eligible voters and 642 million people turning out to vote, according to the Election Commission of India.

The Lok Sabha, “House of the People” or lower house, election started in mid-April and progressed over seven phases until 1 June, as a deadly heatwave gripped the country. Dozens of voters and election officials died during the process as temperatures approached 50C in some areas.

Most voters used electronic voting machines, which means results will be declared today. Exit polls predict the election will be easily won by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his ruling Bharatiya Janata party-led alliance.

But Modi will be eyeing a two-thirds majority, which would have significant implications for India’s 1.4 billion citizens. The opposition INDIA bloc needs to win more than 180 of the 543 seats to prevent the two-thirds majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

Vote counting is about to start, around 8am IST (in roughly 15 minutes’ time). We’ll have more detail shortly on how the process works.

Here is what we know so far:

• According to exit polls released on Saturday night, Modi and the BJP are looking at a decisive win and may even gain enough seats to win a two-thirds majority in parliament, which would allow the government to make far-reaching amendments to the constitution.

• Voting in the seventh and final staggered round of the six-week poll ended on Saturday, held in brutally hot conditions across swaths of the country. At least 33 polling staff died from heatstroke in Uttar Pradesh state alone on Saturday, where temperatures hit 46.9C (116.4F), election officials said.

• A top opponent of Narendra Modi vowed on Sunday to keep fighting “dictatorship” before he returned to jail, following elections widely expected to produce another landslide victory for the Hindu-nationalist leader. Arvind Kejriwal is among several opposition leaders under criminal investigation, with colleagues describing his arrest the month before the general elections began in April as a “political conspiracy” orchestrated by Modi’s BJP.

• Modi’s political opponents and international rights groups have long sounded the alarm about threats to India’s democracy. US thinktank Freedom House said this year the BJP had “increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents”.

• Modi’s party won the regional vote in Arunachal Pradesh, a state bordering China, while a local party swept to power in Sikkim, a Himalayan state, officials and politicians said on Sunday. Provincial elections in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim were held on 19 April simultaneously with the first phase of the national polls.
  The BJP comfortably retained power in Arunchal Pradesh by winning 46 of the 60 seats.