Two weeks after a robotaxi event that failed to inspire, Tesla re-pivoted rather more successfully — back to the car business. And yet Wednesday evening’s earnings call echoed the vagueness and confusion that marked that earlier event. Altogether, it tees up a high-stakes fourth quarter and, more importantly, 2025.
Tesla beat the consensus earnings estimate for the first time in five quarters, albeit an estimate that has roughly halved over the past year. The closely watched gross profit margin for its automotive business, less the impact of selling greenhouse gas credits, halted its slide and ticked back up to its highest level since the end of last year. Free cash flow, meanwhile, was $2.74 billion, the highest in two years. The company also struck a bullish note on vehicle sales, saying it expects to post a “slight” increase in 2024 versus 2023 — in contrast to the current consensus forecast for a decline — implying it will shift more than half a million in a quarter for the first time ever.