Hurricane Milton Forecast: Danger To Florida | Weather.com

H​urricane Milton continues to pose a grave danger to Florida, where its potentially historic strike will bring destructive, life-threatening storm surge, widespread wind damage, flooding rainfall and tornadoes beginning Wednesday.

“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its Tuesday morning discussion.

All preparations should be rushed to completion on Tuesday and if you’re in an area prone to storm surge, follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if ordered. This is a serious situation with the NHC forecasting a storm surge as much as 10 to 15 feet above ground level along the western Florida Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, if the peak surge arrives at high tide.

(​MAPS TRACKER: Spaghetti Models And More)

H​ere’s the latest status on Milton: The hurricane is centered 560 miles southwest of Tampa. It’s a strong Category 4 packing 155 mph winds as of 5 a.m. EDT and is tracking east-northeast at 12 mph.

M​ilton reached a maximum intensity of 180 mph on Monday, making it one of the most intense Atlantic Basin hurricanes on record.

An eyewall replacement cycle has caused Milton to undergo some decrease in intensity overnight, but it remains a serious threat to Florida.

H​ere’s where hurricane and storm surge alerts are in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect along much of the western Gulf Coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. These warnings also extend inland through central Florida, including Orlando.

This means hurricane (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) conditions are expected within the warning area generally within 36 hours, or in this case Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours.

V​arious tropical storm watches and warnings and hurricane watches cover other parts of Florida, southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina, as shown in the map below.

A storm surge warning stretches from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This means a life-threatening water rise from storm surge is expected in the area, generally within 36 hours.

H​ere’s the latest timing and intensity forecast: T​he forecast calls for Milton to continue to weaken gradually on approach to Florida because of increasing wind shear and dry air, but it should remain a major hurricane through landfall sometime later Wednesday into early Thursday.

It’s important to note that this weakening won’t reduce the impacts we see from Milton, including storm surge and destructive winds. Milton will also grow larger on approach to Florida, allowing its wind, storm surge and rainfall impacts to sprawl out across a bigger area.

I​n short, do not let your guard down if you see Milton weakening on approach to landfall as this is expected and the hurricane will continue to be an extremely serious threat to Florida.

I​mpacts Forecast

S​torm Surge

The latest NHC forecast calls for storm surge to be as much as 10 to 15 feet above ground level if the peak surge coincides with high tide along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge could be as much as 6 to 10 feet as far south as Fort Myers Beach and in areas north of Tampa Bay.

I​f the upper end of the storm surge forecast materializes for the Tampa Bay area, it would be the highest there in more than a century.

However, expect adjustments to the storm surge forecast shown below based on future track updates for Milton.

S​torm surge should start building up on Wednesday before likely peaking Wednesday night into early Thursday.

L​ow tide on much of the west coast of Florida is Wednesday afternoon and high tide is Thursday morning.

S​ome storm surge could also inundate parts of Florida’s east coast as well as coastal Georgia and South Carolina because of winds blowing onshore when Milton passes by Wednesday night through Thursday.

Wind Damage

Tropical storm conditions could arrive in western Florida as soon as early Wednesday, which means all preparations should be completed before then.

The strongest winds capable of structural damage, downing trees and knocking out power will occur near where the center of Milton crosses the coast in west-central Florida and then tracks inland through central Florida toward the Orlando area. Power outages may last for days in these areas.

The timing for those strongest winds begins Wednesday afternoon along the western Gulf Coast, then spreads east across central Florida through the first part of Thursday.

Areas farther away from the landfall point in northern and southern Florida will see some strong wind gusts as well that could at least down trees and cause scattered power outages.

B​elow is a look at the peak wind threat based on the current track of Milton. Note that this forecast could shift in future updates.

Rainfall Flooding

R​ainfall has been soaking Florida since the weekend because of a front draped across the state. Flood watches are posted across much of the Florida Peninsula because of this rain preceding Milton’s arrival and rainfall from the hurricane itself by Wednesday.

T​otals across the central and northern Florida Peninsula could be 5 to 12 inches, with locally up to 18 inches through Thursday. This could lead to considerable flash and river flooding.

N​OAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare “high risk” flood threat for parts of central Florida, including the Tampa Bay and Orlando areas, for Wednesday and Wednesday night because of this excessive rainfall.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

T​ornadoes

A​n isolated tornado threat may develop in much of west-central and southern Florida by Tuesday night.

The threat of a few tornadoes will then continue Wednesday and Wednesday night in the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

An isolated tornado threat could linger into Thursday in east-central and southern Florida.

C​heck back with us at weather.com for updates in the coming days as the details come more into focus.