Sunday, December 22, 2024

Hurricane Milton approaches limits of what Earth’s atmosphere can produce

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Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm on Monday, and it’s nearing historic territory among the strongest storms of all time.

According to the latest estimates from the National Hurricane Center, Milton’s maximum sustained winds are nearly 180 miles per hour, making it a “potentially catastrophic” Category 5 hurricane.

The barometric pressure within the storm has dropped to 897 millibars, with both the pressure and wind making it one of the strongest hurricanes on record.

Here’s how the hurricane stacks up.

How strong can a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean be?

According to a 1998 study by MIT climatologist Kerry Emanuel, Milton is nearing the upper limits of what Earth’s atmosphere can generate with a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean.

It is believed that the maximum potential winds for a hurricane are approximately 190 miles per hour, though it is believed that the upper limit is not “absolute,” according to the study. Experts in more recent studies have argued that climate change could allow hurricanes to strengthen even more, and some have even argued for a “Category 6” to be included in the Saffir-Simpson scale as a result.

Only one hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean has hit wind speeds of 190 miles per hour during its development.

The Saffir-Simpson scale is used to measure the speed of hurricanes. Why does it stop at Category 5?

How do Hurricane Milton’s winds stack up all-time?

Milton is one of only a handful of hurricanes to ever hit wind speeds of 180 miles per hour, but it isn’t the most ferocious storm on record in the Gulf.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Allen holds the distinction for the strongest winds ever recorded near the eye of a storm, hitting an astonishing 190 miles per hour as it moved across the Yucatan channel and entered the Gulf of Mexico.  

Allen made impacts in numerous locations before making its final landfall near the border of the United States and Mexico, with 269 fatalities tied to the storm throughout the Caribbean.

What about its barometric pressure?

Hurricane Wilma holds the record for lowest barometric pressure of any Atlantic Ocean hurricane on record, dropping to 882 millibars, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Wilma did weaken before making landfall in Florida, but still impacted the state as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120 miles per hour. The storm ultimately caused 52 fatalities, according to officials.

How will Milton unfold?

“Fluctuations in intensity” are expected, according to the NHC, but it will be an “extremely dangerous hurricane” through landfall.

While Milton is expected to weaken before it arrives in Florida, it is believed that hurricane-force winds will extend up to 30 miles from the center of the hurricane, and tropical storm-force winds, which are defined as sustained winds of up to 70 miles per hour, will be present up to 80 miles from the center of the storm.

The hurricane could cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet along parts of the Florida coast, including in Tampa Bay. The worst of the storm surge is expected to the south of the landfall location, with surge-related flooding expected in those areas.

In addition to the storm surge and the wind, heavy rain is expected, with 5-to-10 inches of rain likely across central Florida. Localized rainfall of up to 15 inches could occur, leading to serious-to-severe flooding in some locations.

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm-force winds possible by Wednesday morning. Landfall is expected to occur Wednesday night.

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