Hurricane Beryl Explosively Intensified – What’s Next?

Just wow. Those two words are used sparingly by me because it is important to be credible not hyperbolic when it comes to weather events. However, it seems like I am using them more often. This morning is no different. When there are major weather events, I scour the data and models as a part of my morning routine. What I am seeing concerning now Category 3 Hurricane Beryl is simply astounding. It has explosively intensified and remains a potential threat for the U.S. by next weekend. Here’s what you need to know.

I always start with the authoritative source for the latest information on hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center writes in its morning discussion, “Beryl’s structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes rapid intensification.” The hurricane is moving into an environment with very warm sea surface temperatures (29 degrees Celsius) and minimal wind shear. NHC goes on to say, “There’s no obvious reason it shouldn’t become a very powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands…. the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward islands.”

Rapid intensification is defined by the NOAA Glossary as, “An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.” That’s roughly 35 mph. DTN senior software engineer and weather expert Sam Lillo’s post on X tells you how explosive the intensification of Beryl has been. Lillo explains that Beryl intensified by 65 kt in 36 hours. He also goes on to say, “It took #Beryl 42 hours to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, on June 30th. This has been done 6 other times in Atlantic hurricane history. And the EARLIEST date this was achieved before was … September 1. SEPTEMBER!”

The storm is also unprecedented in other ways too. Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach says Beryl is the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) east of the Lesser Antilles during the month of June. If the storm strengthens to Category 4 as expected by July 1st, it will be the earliest Category 4 storm on record. Klotzbach posted, “Current Atlantic record for earliest Category 4 hurricane is Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005.” By the way, Beryl is also the third earliest Category 3 storm on record behind Alma (1966) and Audrey (1957), according to Klotzbach.

Beryl is likely to encounter a bit more wind shear as it moves further into the Caribbean Sea, which could moderate the explosive intensification trend. However, as the storm moves into the western Caribbean, forecast models are hinting at less shear again. Remember, hurricanes develop better when there is less wind shear (wind speed or direct changes as you go up in altitude) and high ocean heat content. For the latter, there is plenty of that. NHC also points out, “There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days. Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track ….”

Beyond five days, there is always more uncertainty in the track forecast. Right now, the European model suggests a stronger storm moving southward into Mexico by the weekend. However, the American GFS models hints at a weaker storm into the Gulf of Mexico and landfalling in Texas. I fully expect the models to come into better agreement in the coming hours to days as the intensity scenarios clarify in the western Caribbean. As such, if you live along the western Gulf Coast in the U.S., Central America or Mexico, pay attention.

There is also another storm trailing Beryl, but I will deal with that another time.