Topline
A storm system moving west over the Atlantic Ocean is likely to form into the second named tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters warn, bringing heavy rain to the Caribbean islands over the weekend as the storm picks up strength—and forecasters warn it will probably strengthen into the year’s first hurricane.
The second named tropical storm in the Atlantic is expected to develop on Friday, one week after … [+]
Key Facts
The storm, called Tropical Depression Two, is traveling east of the Caribbean’s Windward Islands with maximum sustained wind speeds of 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
By Sunday night or Monday, the National Hurricane Center warns the storm will strengthen into a hurricane, bringing heavy rainfall, hurricane force winds and a “dangerous storm surge” to the Windward Islands.
The storm—which would take the name Beryl—is currently situated roughly 1,400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands in the eastern Caribbean, moving west at 15 to 20 mph toward the Lesser Antilles, which the National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will hit this weekend.
Alabama NBC affiliate WVTM forecasters say the storm could then head into the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico, with projections showing the storm passing as far north as the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, and as far south as the waters off Venezuela.
Forecasters with The Weather Channel say conditions are favorable for storm development, while low wind shear, or disruptive winds that can upend hurricane formation, will also allow the storm to strengthen as it moves west.
How Many Hurricanes Do Forecasters Predict For 2024?
Last month, NOAA came out with the most dire hurricane warning the administration has ever forecasted, warning there could be between 17 and 25 named tropical storms before the end of the hurricane season on November 30. AccuWeather forecasters, meanwhile, predicted a “record-setting pace” for the 2024 season, which forecasters warned could bring up to 25 named tropical storms (maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or more), including eight to 12 hurricanes (at least 74 mph) and four to seven major hurricanes (at least 111 mph). Those predictions would outpace the 19 named storms of 2023, or the average of just over 14 named storms seen over the past three decades. NOAA forecasters say the reason behind the potentially record-setting storm season is a combination of near-record hot sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that fuel hurricane development, as well as La Niña, a weather phenomenon reducing disruptive winds in the Atlantic called wind shear. Less wind shear can allow hurricanes to form.
Tangent
The first named storm of the year—Tropical Storm Alberto—made landfall in Mexico last week, bringing heavy rain and flooding to northern Mexico and parts of southern Texas. At least three people in Mexico were killed in the storm.
What To Watch For
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season came and went without a bang on June 1, though tropical storm activity is expected to ramp up in August and September, when ocean waters reach their highest temperatures. Still, a calm start to the season would not be an outlier. In 2022, no tropical storms formed between early July and early September, a historic lull broken up by Hurricane Danielle that formed and fizzled hundreds of miles offshore (Hurricane Ian broke 2022’s quiet spell, becoming Florida’s deadliest hurricane in nearly 100 years).