Nor did anyone apparently notice that Ukraine began planning for the operation in March, with cross-border raids by Ukrainian-backed Russian rebel units.
“We did the same thing back in the day. We went in, observed the reaction – how quickly they respond to your arrival, how many forces are there, where, what, how – and then we left. Then again and again,” an ex-Russian officer who previously fought against Ukraine told the Russian outlet Important Stories.
“So, eventually, [the AFU] already had a plan, gradually pulled in troops in small groups so as not to make a large movement noticeable, and then just broke through.”
Despite six months of such warning signs, “nothing” was done to reinforce the border, he added.
When the “textbook” Ukrainian attack came on Tuesday last week, outnumbered FSB border guards and conscripted troops had to fight tanks and armoured vehicles with rifles. It is no wonder so many surrendered.
“The AFU planned everything smartly, like straight out of a textbook: conduct additional reconnaissance, chart the route, and most importantly, do it quickly,” the Russian rebel officer added.
“So they just push forward as fast as possible, while ours are talking s—, arguing, showing up, and filming reports. As they say in the army: ‘If you want to defeat Russia, declare war, and it will f— itself up with inspections.”
Ukrainian troops who have returned from the fighting, as well as Russian war bloggers, have described conscripts caught unawares and being killed or captured in large numbers.
The units rushed in to respond to the invasion were also a mixed bag. On the border were the FSB troops, many of whom were quickly captured.
The 810th separate marine brigade, part of the Black Sea fleet, was redeployed either from the Kharkiv region, or the Pokrovsk front in Donbas, according to different military think tanks.
The Akhmat special forces, commanded by Apti Alaudinov, Ramzan Kadyrov’s right hand man, is technically under the control of the Rosgvardia.
The 128th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and the 15th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade were both hit by Ukrainian Himars rockets while moving from different directions into Kursk.
The Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian think tank, named four more rifle brigades and regiments drawn from the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhya fronts and two airborne battalions from the strategic reserves who were being rushed to Kursk.
What’s worse is that the main Russian formation facing Ukraine in this area is bogged down in an assault in the Kharkiv region that began three months ago.
“The Operational Group of Forces North received a name change and upgrade about one to two weeks before it attacked Kharkiv in May.
“Prior to May it was a territorial defence group. So for the past three months it’s been transitioning from a defensive to offensive orientation, meaning that this Russian op group was much weaker than the others”, said Ms Massicot.
“From May to August it had a major reorganisation, a new commander, and attacked Kharkiv early. Its ministry of defence units are now bogged down in Kharkiv and that offensive is not making progress.”