Of course, chef tie-ups and premium meal deals are not a new phenomenon.
Waitrose began working with Heston Blumenthal in 2010 (although they parted ways in 2022 amid suggestions that his increasingly experimental dishes were falling out of favour with its middle-class shoppers) and it is hard to name a supermarket that Jamie Oliver has not collaborated with.
However, the increasing volume of such tie-ups and increase in premium offerings on shelves is notable.
While shoppers are keen, the trend represents yet another headwind for the beleaguered hospitality sector. Restaurants have been hammered by the soaring cost of ingredients, fuel and wages in recent years – necessitating significant price increases.
“Frankly, there has been a perfect storm in the last two or three years,” says Black at Shore Capital.
Menu prices in the biggest chains rose by 4.5pc in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the prior year, according to Lumina Intelligence.
Data suggests this has contributed to a real-terms drop in spending: growth at Britain’s leading restaurant and pub groups has slowed to about 1.3pc, according to CGA – significantly below the current rate of inflation.
Bosses have warned that the ceiling of what they can feasibly charge diners without losing them altogether has already been reached. They are finding creative ways to cut costs instead, such as having fewer staff on shifts or closing more days of the week.
“There are two things here: one is the cost of eating out, but equally the availability of places to eat out is more constrained,” says Black. “An awful lot of places don’t open on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, now.”
Whether or not supermarkets can actually live up to their promise of ‘restaurant quality’ is up for debate. Chefs argue the skill of a trained cook and the experience of hospitality is simply unmatchable at home.
“If people are saving money, great, go and get your ready meal and sit in front of the TV and enjoy it,” says Dominic Chapman, chef patron of The Crown in Burchetts Green, Berkshire.
“But you can’t really compare to a chef of my experience buying a beautiful turbot, cooking it beautifully, and presenting it to a customer, and the smile and the enjoyment.”
Home kitchens also lack the specialist equipment needed to deliver true restaurant-level quality, he argues.
“You’re not going to be Hawksmoor, because Hawksmoor steaks are absolutely brilliant, and if you can do a better one at home, then you may as well set up a restaurant.”
Simon Stenning, hospitality consultant and director of Future Foodservice, says mid-tier restaurants and casual dining chains are most vulnerable to the supermarket offensive because the customers of these venues are most sensitive to price.
“When [people] go out, what they’re looking for are the swankier restaurants, the ones that are making them feel incredibly good about not just the meal, but the whole occasion,” he says.
Many in the hospitality industry argue supermarkets already have an unfair advantage over pubs and restaurants courtesy of the taxman.
Most of the food and drink sold in the supermarkets are not subject to VAT, while those purchased in a restaurant, pub or take away are charged at the standard rate of 20pc.