Sunday, December 22, 2024

How Israel went after Hezbollah’s chain of command – and why it matters

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But taken together with the other elements of the Israeli assault, the future of the movement is looking more uncertain than ever before.

“Although Hezbollah right now is far from crumbling, I think it is facing the greatest challenge in its history,” she said.

For a start, Hezbollah will not just be paranoid about spies in its ranks, it will also have lost faith in any form of technology to communicate. 

Co-ordinating a missile response to Israeli air strikes or even organising basic logistics is made much more complicated if the only way of communicating is through verbal messaging.

Writing off Hezbollah would certainly be premature. It still has a large arsenal of long-range guided missiles that, if fired in sufficient quantity, could overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system – which has so far managed to intercept much of the low-grade rocket fire aimed in its direction.

Striking back

Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets into Israel in the past week, most have been aimed away from population centres, with only a single missile being aimed at Tel Aviv, which was easily intercepted.

The big question is whether Hezbollah will not fire its rockets – or whether, because its capability has been so eroded, it cannot.

Iran, Hezbollah’s paymasters, may be preventing the group from firing its more sophisticated missiles, which it views as an insurance in the event of Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, those close to Hezbollah say it has chosen not to escalate because its leaders believe that is what Israel wants them to do.

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