Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely replacement for President Joe Biden, who dropped his 2024 presidential bid and endorsed Harris Sunday—and she is performing about the same as Biden in head-to-head polls with Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the 2024 ESSENCE Festival of Culture at the Ernest N. Morial … [+]
Key Facts
A flurry of polls conducted in the wake of the June 27 presidential debate showed Harris performing roughly the same as Biden against Trump (who has been leading the president by a slim margin for months), and more recent polls after the attempted assassination of Trump show similar trends.
Harris has also polled better than other Democrats commonly floated as replacement candidates to Biden, but the polls didn’t factor in how months of campaigning could change voters’ perceptions of many of the lesser-known candidates that don’t have the benefit of national name recognition like Harris does.
One CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week gave Harris a slight edge: Trump led Harris by three points (51%-48%), while leading Biden by five (52%-47%) among likely voters (the poll’s margin of error was 2.7 points).
However, an Economist/YouGov poll (margin of error 3.1) conducted July 13 – 16 and released Thursday found Biden would lose to Trump 41% to 43%, while Harris would perform slightly worse, losing to Trump 39% to 44%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted and released Tuesday—after the attempted assassination of Trump—found both Biden and Harris are virtually statistically tied with Trump, but 69% of respondents see Biden as too old to work in government (margin of error 3.1).
Democratic polling firm Bendixen & Amandi found Harris beating the former president 42% to 41% (margin of error 3.1) in a survey released July 9 and first obtained by Politico, while Biden, Whitmer and Newsom all trail Trump.
A YouGov poll conducted July 3-6 found more Democrats and independents who lean Democrat prefer Biden over Harris as the nominee, 47% to 32%, while 21% said they weren’t sure (margin of error 4).
A Five Thirty Eight analysis of polls found Harris’ odds of winning the Electoral College over Trump are slightly better than Biden’s (38% versus 35%), but when various economic and political factors are incorporated, in addition to polls, Five Thirty Eight found Biden’s odds of winning swing states and the Electoral College against Trump are better than Harris’—48% to 31%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released July 2 (margin of error 3.5) found Harris would lose to Trump by one point, Biden tied Trump, while four governors who have been floated as potential Biden replacements—Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker—would all perform worse than both Biden and Harris against Trump.
In a CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 3.5) conducted June 28-30, Harris outperformed Biden, and three other potential candidates commonly floated to replace him, in a hypothetical matchup against Trump—but she would still lose to the former president by two points (while Biden would lose to Trump by six points).
Big Number
3.2. That’s how many points Trump leads Biden by, according to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, compared to 0.7 points on June 28, the day after the debate, and 0.2 on June 27, ahead of the debate.
Surprising Fact
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (who is not among the Democrats commonly floated as potential Biden replacements) would beat Trump by a slightly wider margin, 43% to 41%, according to the Bendixen & Amandi poll. When the poll tested Biden replacements with potential running mates, a ticket with Clinton at the top and Harris as the vice presidential nominee outperformed all other hypothetical Biden-replacement scenarios, showing them beating Trump 43% to 40%. Former First Lady Michelle Obama (another long-shot replacement prospect) would also far outperform Harris, Biden and other potential replacements against Trump, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll that showed her leading Trump 50% to 39%.
What To Watch For
While Harris is the most likely replacement for Biden, some pundits and prominent Democrats have floated the idea of a “mini primary” in which candidates could compete for Biden’s delegates through a series of high-profile party-sponsored events, such as debates and town halls.
Tangent
Harris has many upsides: she benefits from name recognition and she could seamlessly take over Biden’s $91 million campaign war chest since she’s already on his ticket. But she also comes with some risks, including a string of unflattering reviews of her performance as vice president, reports of dysfunction in her office and relatively low approval ratings.
Key Background
Biden dropped out Sunday after refusing calls to step aside in the race and launching a clean-up effort to revive his candidacy in the wake of the debate, including sitting for a fresh round of media interviews, rallying his allies in Congress and publicly—and firmly—pushing back against calls for him to resign.
How Does Harris Perform At The State Level?
Harris is seeing similar success in some state polls as she is in national polls. A New York Times/Siena College poll from Monday and conducted July 9-12 found Harris fared better than Biden in two battleground states, Pennsylvania and Virginia. In Pennsylvania, Biden was down by 3 points to Trump while Harris was down 1 point, and in Virginia Harris led Trump by 5 points, while Biden led by 3. However, an Emerson College poll released Thursday in Virginia found Biden and Harris were both down 2 points to Trump.
Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated Trump’s lead over Biden in the polls on the day of the debate: Trump led Biden by 0.7 points on June 28, the day after the debate, and by 0.2 points on June 27, ahead of the debate, according to Five Thirty Eight.
Further Reading
Kamala Harris’ Running Mate: Here’s Who Could Be Her VP If She Replaces Biden (Forbes)
Senior House Democrat Rep. Nadler Reverses Course—Now Says He Supports Biden (Forbes)