Has Hamas really rejected a Gaza ceasefire deal, and has Israel really accepted it? Not exactly

If you believe the United States, then Israel and Hamas are close to reaching a ceasefire deal to end the fighting in Gaza.

But that’s not what both parties are saying.

Hamas has said the most recent offer, a so-called “bridging proposal” that offers steps to end the war, is “essentially an Israeli proposal” that it can’t accept.

The details haven’t been released, but both Hamas and Israel have separately revealed elements of it.

Hamas says it incorporates new demands from Israel, such as:

• Keeping control of the Rafah crossing with Egypt and the Gaza-Egypt border corridor, or “Philadelphi Route”.
• Maintaining Israel’s military presence along the Netzarim Corridor, a line of troops and checkpoints Israel has established between north and south Gaza. This would allow Israel to inspect displaced persons returning to the north.
• Altering a pre-agreed prisoner exchange deal (reportedly to include an Israeli veto over high-security prisoners).
• Not committing to a permanent ceasefire and demanding a guarantee from America it could resume attacks

The last demand — that a ceasefire lead to a permanent end to the war — is a crucial one.

Hamas says it was part of a three-phase proposal put forward by US President Joe Biden that it accepted in early July.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed he refused to agree to that element of that deal.

The statement also confirmed Mr Netanyahu was demanding Israel retain control of the Gaza-Egypt border.

“The Prime Minister insists that we remain in the Philadelphi Corridor in order to prevent terrorist elements from re-arming,” his office said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on August 19 that Mr Netanyahu accepted the new bridging proposal.

But Israeli reports suggest that was not accurate.

“That statement baffled some Israeli officials who told Axios that Netanyahu’s hard lines are actually making a deal much harder to reach,” Axios reported.

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday that he’s committed to getting a Gaza hostage and ceasefire agreement, but Israeli officials say he has refused to give his own negotiators enough space to make a deal.”

Reports like this suggest Hamas is telling the truth, at least about the Israeli demands.

The group insists it does want a ceasefire and accuses the US of misrepresenting its position.

“Biden and Blinken’s statements are misleading claims and do not reflect the true position of the movement, which is keen to reach a cessation of aggression,” Hamas said in a statement.

“Hamas reaffirmed to the mediators its immediate readiness to implement the agreement reached on July 2 of this year, which is fully consistent with Biden’s announcement and the Security Council resolution.”

So the key question is whether Hamas, especially its hardline leader Yahya Sinwar, will sign up to an amended deal that includes some or all of those Israeli demands.

Netanyahu may not want a deal

Israel’s agreement is not a sure thing either.

Israeli media continues to report that Mr Netanyahu is not in favour of a ceasefire now, preferring an approach he calls “total victory”.

He has reportedly told The Heroes Forum, a group of families of soldiers killed in the Gaza war, that he intends to continue attacks in Gaza after a truce period.

“…Netanyahu said that if the deal does go through, after 42 days, the fighting will resume in Gaza ‘until the elimination of Hamas, even while the next steps are being negotiated,'” Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported.

Mr Netanyahu also confirmed he was refusing requests to withdraw Israeli troops from the Netzarim corridor and Egyptian border in order to secure an agreement.

“Netanyahu pledged to the meeting’s participants that ‘Israel will not, under any circumstances, withdraw from the Philadelphi route and Netzarim corridor, despite the tremendous pressure to do so. Military pressure will continue with full force; this is the only thing that causes Hamas to retreat from its unreasonable demands,'” Haaretz reported.

Sources in the Israeli government have reportedly said an Israeli withdrawal from both the Netzarim corridor was part of a previous ceasefire proposal accepted by Hamas.

There have been multiple reports in Israeli media accusing Mr Netanyahu of blocking or delaying a ceasefire.

A former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and recent former member of Israel’s security cabinet, Gadi Eisenkot, said Mr Netanyahu had rejected an attempt to have all the Israeli hostages released at once, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, making the negotiations more difficult.

“Netanyahu wants to see the hostages released, but he is not ready to give up the illusion of his ‘total victory’. He is stuck in his delusions,” prominent political columnist Nahum Barnea wrote in Israel’s major daily newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, on August 19.

It is possible that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will also be happy to let this opportunity for a deal pass by.

The longer he waits, the more likely Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah will launch their promised “harsh punishment” for Israel’s assassination of a Hezbollah commander in Beirut and presumed assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was visiting Tehran.

It’s hard to see how a deal can be reached if neither leader really wants it, or is being forced to take it.

Failure now likely condemns the remaining Israeli hostages to death and Gaza’s civilian population to ongoing horrendous suffering between now and Israel’s “total victory”.