Guido Seat Predictions Beat Every Single Final MRP
There will be long sessions of soul-searching in the offices of UK pollsters this morning as the Guido team’s highly scientific whiteboard-based prediction beat every single final MRP projection they put out. All but two constituencies are now decided. Ross Kempsell is officially the victor, beating the rest of the team and every single UK pollster’s final seat MRP prediction for accuracy…
Guido has crunched the numbers and found that an average of the team’s predictions is closer to the actual result than all of those expensive and overhyped MRP final seat forecasts. YouGov came closest to matching Guido’s gold standard…
If you don’t believe it, you can check the underlying data tables here. Variance is the difference between actual seats and the predictions – the lower, the better. Collectively we are what Dominic Cummings would describe as super-forecasters. Why hire the pollsters when you can just check Guido…