The world’s hope for avoiding all-out war in the Middle East hangs in the balance as Iran weighs how to respond to an alleged Israeli covert operation that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Haniyeh was killed in the capital city on Wednesday, hours after attending the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
IRGC (Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) sources told i that Iran’s response to Israel may come no later than Tuesday or Wednesday.
Hassan Nasrallah, secretary-general of Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, is due to give a speech at 3pm Tuesday local time and many regional observers believe the “grand operation” will start afterwards.
Questions remain over how the top Hamas official was killed, but the answer will not diminish the severity of the issue for the Iranian leadership.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, issued a message on Wednesday holding Israel accountable for the assassination, adding: “[Israel] has also prepared the ground for a severe punishment… Following this bitter, tragic event… it is our duty to take revenge.”
It is the second time in five months that Tehran and Tel Aviv have been on the brink of war. The first came on 1 April, when Israel attacked the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military officials, including Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria.
The attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound elicited a wave of anger among Iranians, leading to a response from Tehran on 13 April when Iran, for the first time in its history, fired hundreds of missiles directly from its territory at Israel.
The only reason that attack did not lead to all-out war was because it only caused infrastructural damage, with no casualties.
This time, however, the response is not just coming from Tehran, since Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander, Fouad Shukur, hours before it allegedly killed Haniyeh in Tehran.
It has made the matter personal for Nasrallah, with the Hezbollah chief outraged at losing several senior commanders at Israel’s hands.
Hezbollah is now also planning to retaliate against Israel, and Yemen’s Houthis have vowed to avenge “resistance” commanders Haniyeh and Shukur.
Early on Sunday, US news outlet Axios revealed that American and Israeli officials expect an Iranian response to the assassination of Hamas’s leader “as early as Monday”.
However, the US is hopeful of stalling the Iranian retaliation. Jordanian foreign minister Aymen al-Safadi travelled to Tehran on Sunday to deliver a message from King Abdullah II of Jordan to Iran, after speaking over the phone with Iran’s acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani on Saturday.
Jordan helped Israel intercept Iranian missiles on 13 April.
Tehran’s top diplomat has warned that Jordan’s capital Amman could be “a legitimate target” if Jordan gives control of its airspace to Israel, should Iran respond in the coming days.
Iran-backed Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraq’s Shia militia have formed the “Axis of Resistance”, which Westerners believe makes its decisions with Tehran’s co-ordination.
This does not appear to be the case this time. The Houthis started their operations before any co-ordination with Tehran, downing an American MQ-9 Reaper drone on Sunday. Hezbollah has its own motivations to respond directly to Israel. Nasrallah losing his right-hand man has cost him a great deal, making his military wing look weak.
Some officials in Tehran are against an all-out war between Iran and Israel, advising decision-makers to arrange a precise and cautious response, with zero or minimal civilian casualties.
Yet sources told i that Iran’s response will be more severe than the 13 April attack, and will likely have casualties, considering that once Iran starts, other factions of the “Axis of Resistance” will add fuel to the fire, hoping to deliver a heavy blow to Israel.
This may prompt Iranian officials to calibrate the severity of their operation in the hopes of avoiding a full-fledged war.
Sources told i that Iran’s supreme leader has asked the IRGC and army to prepare a defensive plan, should Israel retaliate.
Whatever happens, the inevitable battle between Iran and Israel is starting.