Projected initial results put the far-right AfD ahead of its rivals in Thuringia and on course for a gain in Saxony. The votes in the two German states are seen as barometers for the federal elections next year and a referendum on the governing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats.
Thuringia — far-right AfD in the lead
For many observers, the most influential result was in Thuringia, where the AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election since WWII, getting almost 10% more than the Christian Democrats (CDU), Germany’s center-right conservative party.
Notably, the three parties that make up the governing coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the national level in Berlin have all seen devastating results.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is firmly in third place, ahead of the Left Party — the old party of BSW leader Wagenknecht.
Based on initial projected results, the 88-seat parliament is now projected to have about 31 AfD lawmakers, 23 from the CDU, 15 from BSW, 13 from the Left Party and only 6 from the Social Democrats. With the Greens having apparently failed to make the 5% threshold required to make it into parliament, they won’t get a single seat.
Given that all other parties have ruled out a coalition with the AfD, it appears extremely unlikely the far-right party would be able to form a government. But the fact they’re on track to control over one-third of the seats means they would be able to block some state assembly decisions, such as voting for judges.
Saxony — Conservatives just ahead of AfD
In Saxony, the scenario is only slightly better for the parties in the center of the political spectrum. With around 32% support, the Christian Democrats have only a slight edge over the AfD’s 30.8%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance comes in third with 12%.
Again, the parties of Germany’s governing coalition have fared very poorly. The Social Democrats are just over 7%, while the Greens have just about cracked the 5% threshold.
Based on those preliminary results, the AfD would be only two seats behind the CDU’s 42 in the state parliament, with BSW, SPD, and the Greens also represented in the Saxony legislature.
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Edited by: Sean M. Sinico