Georgia’s ruling party and the pro-western opposition both claimed victory in a pivotal parliamentary election widely seen as a make-or-break vote for the country’s long-held aspiration for EU membership.
Voters in the Caucasus country of almost 4 million people on Saturday headed to the polls in an election depicted as a watershed moment that would determine whether one of the once most pro-western former Soviet states would veer towards a more authoritarian, Russia-aligned path.
Rival exit polls offered starkly different projections: three indicated the opposition would secure a majority, while another predicted a comfortable win for the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party.
Exit polls by the pro-opposition Formula and Mtavari Arkhi channels showed major gains for pro-western opposition parties, which they suggested would be able to form a majority together in the 150-seat parliament. An exit poll by the Georgian Dream-supporting Imedi TV channel said the ruling party would win a majority of 56%.
“The exit polls are showing an impressive 10% margin of victory for the opposition. We believe the Georgian public has voted clearly for a future at the heart of Europe and no amount of posturing will change that,” said Tinatin Bokuchava, leader of the biggest opposition party, United National Movement (UNM).
Meanwhile, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the shadowy billionaire founder of the populist GD party, also claimed victory in what has been called the most consequential election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
“It is a rare case in the world that the same party achieves such success in such a difficult situation – this is a good indicator of the talent of the Georgian people,” Ivanishvili, widely believed to be the country’s most powerful figure, said just minutes after polls closed.
For the past three decades, Georgia has maintained strong pro-western aspirations, with polls showing up to 80% of its residents favour joining the EU. In recent years however, the government, led by the populist GD party, has increasingly shifted away from the west in favour of Russia, showing reluctance to condemn Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
Observers had cautioned that the partisan exit polls may show significantly varying results.
But it was generally expected that GD would become the biggest party but might come short of claiming a majority and struggle to form a government, with all other blocs refusing to collaborate with it.
The ruling party was facing an unprecedented union of four pro-western opposition forces which had vowed to form a coalition government to oust GD from power and put Georgia back on track to join the EU.
The biggest opposition force is the centre-right UNM, a party founded by Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president who is in prison on charges of abuse of power which his allies say are politically motivated.
Opposition exit polls predict the UNM party will come second, followed by the Coalition for Change, an alliance that brings together several parties led by former UNM leaders.
The results will be closely monitored in Moscow and Brussels, with the EU warning that this vote will shape Tbilisi’s prospects of joining the bloc.
GD has run its campaign on accusations that the pro-western opposition was trying to pull Georgia into a Ukraine-style conflict. In 2008, Georgia fought a war with Russia that lasted five days but left deep scars, and the invasion of Ukraine has left some in the country wary of the possible consequences of provoking Russia by moving closer to the west.
The party has also been accused by critics of plans to move the country in an authoritarian direction after Ivanishvili vowed to ban all major opposition parties and remove opposition lawmakers if his party was re-elected.
“The government is openly pledging to transform Georgia into a one-party state – a move unprecedented in modern Georgian history,” said Tina Khidasheli, chair of the non-governmental organisation Civic Idea and a former defence minister.
Outside polling stations in central Tbilisi some voters echoed this sentiment.
“This is the most important day in our modern history, the situation is very dangerous,” said Mariam Khvedelidze, a 23-year-old student who voted for Save Georgia, an opposition bloc centred on UNM.
Support for the pro-western opposition groups generally comes from urban and younger voters, who envision their political future with the EU.
“Our democracy and future in Europe is at stake. We can not become puppets of the Kremlin,” Khvedelidze added.
But other Georgians said they had voted for the ruling party, believing it was the only force that could keep the country out of war with Russia.
“Right now, we need stability and friendly relations with Moscow,” said Elene Kiknadze, a 74-year-old woman. Voting for GD, she said, would also ensure Georgia would keep its “traditions”, referring to its conservative values, including opposition to rights for LGBTQ+ people. “Let Europe have their freedoms. We don’t need gay parades in this country,” she added.
The ruling Georgian government, aligned with the deeply conservative and influential Orthodox church, has sought to galvanise anti-liberal sentiments by campaigning on “family values” and criticising what it portrays as western excesses.
In the summer, the parliament passed legislation imposing sweeping restrictions on LGBTQ+ rights, a move critics say mirrors laws enacted in neighbouring Russia, where authorities have implemented a series of repressive measures against sexual minorities.
Georgia’s notoriously divided opposition has attempted to unite by forming four pro-European blocs, which have all endorsed the Georgian charter, an initiative proposed by pro-westernZourabichvili, urging them to prevent GD from forming a coalition and remaining in power.
Zourabichvili, whose role is largely ceremonial, wrote on X on Saturday: “European Georgian is winning by 52%.”
The EU granted Georgia candidate membership status last year but has put its application on hold in response to a controversial “foreign agents” bill which was passed in May, requiring media and NGOs receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence”.
The bill, which triggered weeks of mass protests in the spring, has been labelled a “Russian law” by critics, who liken it to legislation introduced by the Kremlin a decade earlier to silence political dissent in the media and elsewhere.
Independent NGOs have warned that GD will attempt to undermine the parliamentary elections, relying on their “administrative resources” – an umbrella term that includes pressing state employees to vote and offering cash handouts to mostly rural voters.
On Saturday morning, several videos circulated online appearing to show ballot stuffing and voter intimidation at various polling stations across Georgia.
“Bidzina Ivanishvili’s thugs are desperate to cling on to power and will resort to anything to subvert the election process,” Bokuchava said as voting was under way.
The opposition has warned that the ruling party may attempt to manipulate the results, which could trigger mass protests, potentially followed by a harsh police crackdown.
“I certainly don’t expect Georgians to tolerate electoral fraud. People won’t stand by as their future is taken from them,” said Bokuchava.