G20 leaders gather in Rio while COP29 delegates seek deal in Baku

Hello and welcome to the working week.

As one global summit begins, another draws to its conclusion. World leaders are starting the week on planes to Rio, where the G20 Summit begins on Monday. Meanwhile, over in Azerbaijan’s capital city, Baku, government officials will try to thrash out a significant cash deal to help climate reduction before the COP29 meeting ends on Friday.

Joe Biden will be attending the G20, having already arrived in Brazil on one of his last state visits as US president. So will Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron, who arrives from a trip elsewhere in the region. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will be in Rio on Monday and Tuesday and is expected to get a bilateral meeting with Biden, and possibly a conversation with Xi following up on his foreign secretary David Lammy’s trip to China last month.

Such extensive air travel is no doubt depressing the climate activists, already filled with woe about the progress of COP29. The talks actually got off to a strong, if contentious, start with countries agreeing a key part of plans for global carbon markets. But the bigger negotiations — on a new global finance goal to help poorer countries shift to green energy and adapt to a warmer world — have been less successful.

Government ministers have been arriving at Baku over the weekend and from Monday their job is to fight it out. Poorer countries mostly want a goal of $1tn. There is broadly a sense that a deal is needed, although the rich countries are reluctant to stump up large sums. All eyes are on China to see if it is willing to contribute. To get the full picture, read this report from my colleague Attracta Mooney, who is on the ground in Baku.

The relentless drag of wars raging around the world reaches a grim milestone this week as we pass the 1,000th day since the start of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. As with the G20 and COP29 meetings, the key concern is what will happen when Donald Trump becomes US president again, having boasted on the campaign trail that he would end the conflict in 24 hours.

There is a steady economic data run this week. Highlights include the G7 economic comparisons with the latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures and a final third-quarter GDP figure from Germany, both out on Friday, and a burst of inflation figures from the EU, Japan, Canada and the UK. Concerns have increased in recent weeks about an uptick in inflation again in the wake of various political events, most notably Donald Trump’s re-election, but also the UK Labour party’s high tax and spend Budget. Both US and Eurozone inflation ticked up in October.

We are also at the tail-end of earnings season, though there is a lot of diarised corporate news with shareholder votes on acquisitions and, in the case of Campbell’s Soup, the end of a well-known brand name.

Big Tech business Nvidia, which replaced fellow US chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average a few weeks ago, reports third-quarter figures on Wednesday. Shares of Nvidia have tripled in the past year, making it the best-performing stock in the benchmark, fuelled by demand for its artificial intelligence chips.

One more thing . . . 

If the world seems broken and is getting you down, fear not: the great British tradition of Christmas pantomimes kicks off again on Saturday with numerous opening night performances. The Hackney Empire, which this year is staging Dick Whittington, sets the standard IMHO. If you prefer more conventional theatre, however, here is the FT’s guide to the best of London’s shows.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Boohoo due to announce the results of its retail offer of new ordinary shares, which closed on Friday. It hoped to raise about £6mn, which together with a placing and subscriptions announced last week (alongside a dire set of financial results) aims to raise gross proceeds of up to about £39.3mn

• UK: November Rightmove House Price Index. Also, S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index

• Results: Big Yellow Group HY, Cerillion FY, Melrose Industries trading update, Sirius Real Estate HY

Tuesday

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before MPs on the Treasury committee, giving evidence on the BoE’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report

• Campbell Soup shareholders vote at their annual meeting on the proposed change of name to The Campbell’s Company

• Canada: October consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• EU: October harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Results: Diploma FY, Imperial Brands FY, Informa 10-month trading update, Lowe’s Q3, Medtronic Q2, Thyssenkrupp FY, Walmart Q3

Wednesday

• Bank of England deputy governor, markets and banking, Dave Ramsden speaking on monetary policy at the University of Leeds

• General meeting of musicMagpie shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by AO World

• General meeting of Tritax EuroBox shareholders to vote on the acquisition of the company by Brookfield

• China: prime loan rate-setting decision

• Japan: October trade balance (AM local time)

• UK: October CPI, retail price index (RPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data. Also, delayed publication of the UK House Price Index

• Results: British Land HY, Britvic FY, Crest Nicholson trading update, CVS Group AGM and trading statement, Nvidia Q3, Palo Alto Networks Q1, Sage Group FY, Severn Trent HY, Target Q3, TJX Q3

Thursday

• UK: October public sector finances

• Results: Close Brothers Q1 trading update, Deere & Co Q4, Gap Q3, Grainger FY, International Distribution Services HY, Intuit Q1, Investec HY, JD Sports Fashion Q3 trading update, Jet2 HY, Liontrust Asset Management HY, Mitie HY

Friday

• EU, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Germany: final Q3 GDP figure

• Japan: October CPI inflation rate data (AM local time)

• UK: October retail sales figures, and construction statistics, for Great Britain Also, GfK UK Consumer Confidence Survey

• US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

• Results: Workspace Group HY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Brazil: G20 Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio. The two-day event will be attended by heads of government from the 19 leading industrialised nations, including a visit by US President Joe Biden on Tuesday, plus the EU and African Union

• UK: Palestinian rights group Al-Haq and Global Legal Action Network (GLAN) bring a judicial review of the previous government’s decision to continue arms sales to Israel at London’s High Court, citing risks of their use in violating international humanitarian law in Gaza

• US: SpaceX is due to attempt the sixth suborbital test launch of its prototype Starship vehicle and Super Heavy Booster in Brownsville, Texas

Tuesday

• 1,000th day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, itself an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2014. Russia officially labels the invasion a “special military operation”

• Israel: local elections for people in areas close to the border of Gaza and Lebanon who were unable to vote in February

• UK: National Farmers Union rally in London, protesting about new government policies, in particular applying inheritance tax to agricultural land. NFU president Tom Bradshaw recently wrote in the FT that this additional tax puts family farms at risk and threatens food security and environmental goals

Wednesday

• Singapore: World Chess Championship match, featuring defending champion Ding Liren and the challenger Gukesh D. The event is held every two years and consists of 14 games

• UK: Equal Pay Day, organised by the Fawcett Society, marking the day in the year the organisation claims British women in effect stop earning relative to men

Thursday

• UK: 50th anniversary of the IRA bombings that killed 21 people at the Mulberry Bush and the Tavern in the Town pubs in Birmingham. Six Irishmen, later known as the Birmingham Six, were arrested and sentenced to life imprisonment. After spending 16 years behind bars, their convictions were overturned

Friday

• Azerbaijan: UN COP29 climate change conference finishes in Baku

• Canada: Nato parliamentary assembly annual session in Montreal, featuring 281 parliament members from 32 Nato member states addressing topics on the Euro-Atlantic defence and security agenda

• Lebanon: Independence Day (from the French Mandate in 1943)

Saturday

• Japan: Labor Thanksgiving Day

• Ukraine: International Holodomor Memorial Day, commemorating the estimated 7mn to 10mn people killed during the 1932-33 Holodomor (“murder by hunger”) in Ukraine

Sunday

• Romania: presidential election

• UK: Christmas puddings and cakes traditionally cooked on Stir Up Sunday

• Uruguay: presidential election run-off