FTSE 100 closes high ahead of a possible Labour supermajority

Live22 updates

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 5:33 pm CEST

  Blog close

  Well, that’s all from us today, be sure to join us again tomorrow when we find out the results of the general election and drill down into all the market reaction and commentary.

  For a rolling coverage on election results do check out our news live blog: Election 2024 live updates

  Have a good evening all.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 5:18 pm CEST

  ECB says policymakers had doubts about latest rate cut

  The European Central Bank (ECB) admitted that some of its policymakers felt there was not enough conclusive evidence to begin cutting interest rates in June.

  In the minutes of its June meeting it said “some members” of the governing council had reservations about reducing rates amid rising wages and inflation.

  President Christine Lagarde previously said there was only one dissenting voice among policymakers when she gave her press conference last month.

  The ECB said on Thursday:

  “At some point, it was necessary to make a judgment call based on the information available, even if that information was less conclusive than might be preferred.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 5:07 pm CEST

  What Labour needs to do for pensions and work if it wins election

  

  The first 100 days of any leadership are crucial. It’s the honeymoon period, where a new government can make relatively controversial changes without a dramatic backlash.

  It’s a chance to set the direction of the government.

  If the polls are right and Labour gets to form the next government, it must hit the ground running.

  Read the full article here

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 4:55 pm CEST

  TSMC stock Hits NT$1,000 amid AI rally

  Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company rose above NT$1,000 a share as the rally fueled by artificial intelligence optimism continues before its earnings.

  Bloomberg has the details…

  The stock closed up 2.7% to a record high in Taipei, extending its run this year to nearly 70%. The advance comes as the world’s largest chip maker is expected to report strong earnings in results due this month, thanks to booming AI demand.

  Its market value based on the American depositary receipts recently surpassed Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to become the eighth-largest company globally, and is close to hit a market cap of $1 trillion. While TSMC’s cutting-edge technology and valuation are making it a favorite play among global investors, the company has also benefited from being the main advanced-chip supplier of Nvidia Corp.

  TSMC is expected to post a 36% growth in the second-quarter revenue, from a year earlier, the fastest pace since the last quarter of 2022, according to a Bloomberg poll of 29 analysts. Bloomberg Intelligence expects the company’s revenue to beat market consensus by 10%, leading a batch of earnings’ surprises in Taiwan’s foundry sector.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 4:28 pm CEST

  What a Labour election win could mean for investors

  Labour’s strong lead in the polls puts the party on course to form the next UK government.

  Leader Keir Starmer has announced policies and changes in the party’s manifesto that could have a wide-ranging impact on investors and savers.

  As the UK heads to the polls on 4 July, what could a Labour win mean for investors?

  We break it down for you.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 3:19 pm CEST

  Oil prices fall

  Brent oil (BZ=F) prices fell on Thursday trading after the release of weaker-than-expected US economic data.”

  It came as non-manufacturing PMI numbers came in lower than estimations, indicating a slight decrease in activity, with ADP employment data also disappointing.

  Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said:

  “Oil traders interpreted the disappointing figures as a sign of economic slowdown, likely to translate into lower demand for oil.”

  “However, despite today’s losses, the downside for the price per barrel remains limited.”

  “Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions caused by weather events on the US East Coast remain bullish factors, threatening supply and counterbalancing any medium-to-long-term demand concerns.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 2:52 pm CEST

  Conservatives lose nearly half of homeowner votes

  The Conservatives have lost nearly half of homeowner votes, latest polling from national estate agency Jackson-Stops has revealed.

  In 2019’s general election, homeowners accounted for 38% of the Conservative voter base, whilst today this figure sits at just 19%.

  In a national survey conducted by OnePoll reaching over 2,000 respondents across the UK, analysis shows that overall, homeowners are planned to vote Labour in this month’s general election (30%) — a stark change from 2019 where the greater majority of homeowners voted Conservative (38%).

  This fall in votes amongst homeowners is especially fascinating given the Tory party has historically been known as the party of homeownership.

  Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, said:

  “We are observing an interesting shift in the voting patterns of homeowners, with more indicating support for Labour in the general election. A fall in votes driven by homeowners is especially fascinating given the Tory party has historically been known as the party of homeownership.

  “Whether Conservative voters just feel disenchanted more generally, an appetite for change is clearly evident.

  “Labour’s commitment to tackling the housing crisis appears to resonate strongly with voters. Indeed, 27% of respondents highlight the delivery of more affordable and social housing as crucial for improving the housing market.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 2:30 pm CEST

  Cineworld to shut dozens of cinemas

  

  Cineworld is set to close dozens of cinemas as part of a restructure to reviving the beleagured chain.

  The company is considering closing about a quarter of its approximate 100 sites under plans which would also see it try to renegotiate rent agreements on about 50 of them, Sky News said.

  Cineworld filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US in 2022 as it fought with a multi-billion dollar debt pile.

  It also delisted from the London Stock Exchange in August last year after a collapse in its share price.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 2:14 pm CEST

  BoE: UK employers scale back expected wage growth

  UK employers expect their wage bills to grow more slowly over the coming year, according to a new survey from the Bank of England.

  Threadneedle Street’s own Decision Maker Panel survey showed anticipated year-ahead wage growth fell by 0.3 percentage points to 4.2% in the three months to June.

  It was the lowest reading since the survey started in May 2022.

  “Annual wage growth was 6.0% in the three months to June, unchanged from the three months to May,” the BoE said. “Firms therefore expect their wage growth to decline by 1.8 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages.”

  Companies surveyed by the BoE also expected to raise their own selling prices at a slower pace in the year ahead, while expecting consumer price inflation to moderate.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 1:51 pm CEST

  Bitcoin price falls below $59,000 as sell off continues

  Bitcoin’s value fell below $59,000 (£46,286) on Thursday as multiple factors exacerbated selling pressure on the digital asset. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded down 3.9% over the 24 hours, changing hands for $58,770, as of the time of writing.

  Other cryptocurrencies, ether (ETH-USD) and solana (SOL-USD) have fallen further, decreasing by 4.6% and 7.3% respectively. The global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.28tn, a decrease of 4.1% over the past day, according to Coingecko data.

  The recent bitcoin price drop has been exacerbated by a spike in long liquidations. Futures traders betting that the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will increase in value have lost over $240m in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data.

  Read the full article here

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 1:28 pm CEST

  McDonald’s limits breakfast sales amid bird flu outbreak

  

  McDonald’s outlets in Australia have cut breakfast service hours as bird flu outbreaks around the country hit egg supplies.

  Breakfast orders are stopping at 10.30am instead of midday, the company said, after the Australian authorities said H7 avian influenza has emerged at nearly a dozen poultry farms across Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.

  McDonald’s Australia said:

  “We are carefully managing (the) supply of eggs due to the current industry challenges.

  “We are working hard with our suppliers to return this back to normal as soon as possible.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 1:05 pm CEST

  Smith & Nephew top FTSE climber

  Smith & Nephew is one of the top risers on the FTSE 100 index this morning, climbing more than 8% on the day, after the Swedish investment firm Cevian Capital disclosed a stake of about 5% in the artificial hips and knees maker.

  The move means Cevian now holds 43.9 million shares in the medical equipment manufacturer, making it the third largest shareholder.

  Russ Mould, investment director at the stockbroker AJ Bell, said:

  “Activist investors often circle a struggling company so the news Sweden’s Cevian has taken a stake in medical devices firm Smith & Nephew shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

  “Cevian has previously taken positions in UBS, Vodafone and Aviva in an attempt to force change and the case for doing so at Smith & Nephew is presented by a near-40% decline in the share price over the last five years.

  “The positive share price reaction to Cevian taking a position in Smith & Nephew demonstrates the market thinks an outside catalyst for a shake-up of the business would be no bad thing.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 12:43 pm CEST

  Election 2024 live updates

  An intense six weeks of political campaigning comes to a head today, as the country heads to the polls for the 2024 general election.

  Polling stations opened at 7am this morning, and will remain open until 10pm tonight. The first of the 650 seats are likely to declare their results from 11.30pm. Rishi Sunak was joined by his wife, Akshata Murty, as they visited a polling station to vote on Thursday.

  The prime minister called a snap election on 22 May, more than 2.1 million applications to vote have been submitted, while more than 57,000 people have applied for a Voter Authority Certificate.

  This is the UK’s first general election that requires people to bring photo I.D. to the polling booth, and the Electoral Reform Society estimates there may be as many as 1 million people who do not have acceptable I.D. to cast a vote.

  Follow the live blog from Yahoo News for all the latest on the general election 2024

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 12:20 pm CEST

  Pound little changed on election day

  The pound is largely unchanged against the dollar this morning at $1.2763, up just 0.1%. It is also flat against the euro at 84.6p.

  Trading will be particularly thin as US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.

  Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group, said:

  “This is not a knife-edge vote, and we can rule out any significant fiscal manoeuvres, thanks to budget constraints and the fresh memory of the Truss bond rout. There are always tail risks of a hung parliament or fiscal upheaval, of course, but this time they are really far out into those tails.”

  “Where this election is most likely to impact sterling is in the lifting of the Bank of England speaker blackout. The rate path remains the sterling’s biggest driver this year, and markets have been starved of guidance about policymakers’ voting intentions at the August meeting.”

  “Looking to the horizon, how the sterling fares under a Labour government over the next 5-10 years will depend primarily on two things: the EU and growth. Love it or loathe it, the Brexit vote in 2016 embedded a deep discount into the pound that it is yet to fully recover. One of the easiest paths to a stronger sterling would be closer trading ties to the EU, but it is currently unclear how Labour will reset that relationship.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 11:52 am CEST

  Lufthansa to consider raising stake in ITA to 90%

  

  Lufthansa will consider raising its stake in Italy’s ITA Airways to 90%, starting from early next year, the CEO of the German airline said in an interview published on Thursday.

  Reuters has the details…

  Carsten Spohr was speaking after his company won EU antitrust approval to buy 41% of state-owned ITA for 325 million euros ($350 million).

  “For us, the option for the 90% starts in early 2025,” Spohr told Italy’s Corriere della Sera, adding that he would like the Italian government to retain a stake in ITA.

  When Lufthansa agreed its 41% deal with Rome’s authorities last year, it said it was looking to acquire full control of ITA “at a later date”.

  In a separate interview with Il Sole 24 Ore daily, ITA Chairman Antonino Turicchi said the closing of the deal for Lufthansa’s initial investment would take place in November, adding that Lufthansa would have the possibility of raising its stake to 90% “one year after the closing”.

  Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said on Wednesday that his government wanted to maintain some oversight on ITA to protect national interests.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 11:36 am CEST

  UK construction grows despite housing decline

  The UK construction sector expanded in June, but lost momentum thanks to a fall in housebuilding.

  The headline S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 52.2 from 54.7 in May, but remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

  The main driver of growth was from commercial activity.

  The only area to record a drop in activity was housing, where output fell again following the first increase in 19 months during May.

  There was also slower rise in new orders amid election uncertainty, but the pace of job creation picked up.

  Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

  “Continued growth of the UK construction sector in June meant that the sector has recorded sustained expansion throughout the second quarter of the year.

  “While there were signs of a slowdown in the latest survey period, most notably around housing activity, firms indicated that a slowdown in new order growth was in part related to election uncertainty. We may therefore see trends improve once the election period comes to an end.

  ”Moreover, confidence in the year ahead outlook remained strong and firms increased employment to the largest extent in ten months.In terms of inflation, there remains little sign of cost pressures picking up to any great extent, encouraging firms to expand purchasing activity. Supply-chain conditions also remained favourable.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 11:08 am CEST

  When are the election results expected?

  After the polls close at 10pm tonight, ballot boxes for the 650 constituencies are taken from polling stations to counting centres and counts begin immediately.

  The first seats declare some time close to 11pm and the vast majority are declared before 09am on Friday morning.

  The BBC estimates 20 results will come in before 2am and the pace will pick up after that.

  Between 2am and 4am there will be 325 seats declared and between 4am and 6pm another 275. The last few results come in later on Friday morning.

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 10:47 am CEST

  20,000 Tesco staff to share £30m from share schemes

  

  More than 20,000 Tesco staff will share in a windfall profit of more than £30m after share savings schemes have matured.

  These will mainly be workers on the shop floor in stores and distribution centres,

  It comes as the windfall is created by the strong growth of the Tesco share price, which was £3.06 earlier this week. Those who joined the schemes are able to buy shares at a discounted price of just £1.88 or £1.98 each and either hold on to them, or sell them and make a profit on each share.

  A Tesco shopfloor worker who invested the average £68 a month for the last five years stands to pocket around £6,640 from their £4,080 investment, a profit of £2,560, Tesco said.

  Emma Taylor, Tesco’s chief people officer, said:

  “It’s great news that more than 20,000 colleagues will benefit this year from our share schemes. This is just one of the many benefits available to our colleagues, and the strong performance of the schemes this year is a reflection of their hard work and the brilliant job that they do serving our customers every day.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 10:29 am CEST

  New car sales hit 1 million in first half

  More than a million new cars were sold in the UK in the first half of the year for the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

  This is according to preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, (SMMT) the UK industry’s lobby group, suggested that the industry would sell about 2 million cars over the year.

  New car registrations rose in June 1.1% to reach 179,263 units, taking the total to 1,006,763 new cars.

  Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, said that 2 million sales for the year would be “a bit below par” but that the recovery was a relief for the industry after years of struggles.

  SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said:

  “The year’s midpoint sees the new car market in its best state since 2021 – but this belies the bigger challenge ahead.

  “The private consumer market continues to shrink against a difficult economic backdrop, but with the right policies in place, the next government can re-energise the market and deliver a faster, fairer zero emission transition.

  “All parties are agreed on the need to cut carbon and replacing older fossil fuel based technologies with new electrified powertrains is the essential step to achieving that goal.”

• Thu 4 July 2024 at 10:13 am CEST

  Brits head to the polling stations

  

  Voters are now casting their ballots in a national election to choose the 650 lawmakers who will sit in Parliament for the next five years.

  Outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised his own party on May 22 when he called the general election, which could have taken place as late as January 2025. Polls opened at 7am this morning, and will close at 10pm.

  Polling suggests it could bring an end to 14 years of the Conservative party in government, and lead to Labour opposition leader Keir Starmer being installed in Downing Street as the new prime minister.

  It is the first time since December 2019 that Britain has a say on who will sit as MPs in the House of Commons and which party will form the next government.

  Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:

  “Opinion polls are suggesting one of the biggest landslides the nation has ever seen for Labour, but they have been wrong before.”