Good morning. Donald Trump is a convicted criminal. A jury in New York unanimously found him guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in an attempt to cover up the alleged sexual encounter with Stormy Daniels that threatened his bid for the presidency in 2016. Trump is the first former president to be convicted of a crime, and he could yet be the first convicted felon to be elected president. This is a historic moment, and its reverberations have barely begun to be felt.
Today’s newsletter explains what it all means: the verdicts, the instant fundraising emails, and the consequences still to come. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
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Cancer research | Thousands of patients in England are to be fast-tracked into groundbreaking trials of personalised cancer vaccines in a world-first NHS “matchmaking” scheme to save lives. The jabs, which aim to provide a permanent cure, are custom-built for each patient in just a few weeks.
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General election 2024 | Diane Abbott has not been treated “fairly or appropriately” by some Labour colleagues and should be allowed to stand again for the party at the election if she wishes to do so, Angela Rayner has said. Party apparatchiks will meet next week to agree on Labour’s full list of parliamentary candidates.
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Israel | An investigative reporter with Israel’s leading leftwing newspaper, Haaretz, has said unnamed senior security officials threatened actions against him if he reported on attempts by the former head of the Mossad to intimidate the ex-prosecutor of the international criminal court.
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London | A nine-year-old girl is in critical condition after she was shot by a hitman on a motorbike while eating with her family at a Turkish restaurant. Three men were also hit and wounded in the incident in Dalston, north-east London on Wednesday evening.
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Ukraine | Joe Biden has allowed Ukraine to use some US-made weapons over one part of the Russian border, relaxing an important constraint on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. The change is designed to allow Kyiv’s forces to defend against an offensive aimed at the city of Kharkiv.
In depth: Trump humbled – but seeking to take advantage
Donald Trump’s convictions all relate to a $130,000 hush-money payment made to Stormy Daniels at the end of the 2016 campaign so that she would not go public with her claim of a sexual encounter. The payment was made by Trump’s fixer, Michael Cohen, but Trump later reimbursed him.
Prosecutors alleged that Trump committed a crime by falsifying records to classify illegal payments as legitimate business expenses, and that he did so to improperly influence the outcome of the election. Yesterday, after deliberating for less than ten hours, the jury unanimously agreed.
Lauren Aratani’s guide from last month is a useful primer on the case. Here’s what you need to know about what just happened.
The verdicts
The jurors had to reach a unanimous decision, and although the judge explained that they did not need to agree about which laws Trump broke to find him guilty, he said they had to agree on the fundamental charge: that Trump falsified records to conceal a crime. That meant three possibilities: a unanimous conviction, a unanimous acquittal, and if even one juror disagreed, a mistrial.
The jury has been subject to unending scrutiny over the last six weeks, including claims that one member “made friendly eye contact with Trump” – and there has been a great deal of speculation that a single politically motivated juror could deny the necessary unanimity.
But in the end, they agreed, and pretty quickly, on all 34 charges – separate batches relating to checks Trump signed, invoices from Cohen, and accounting records. Although nothing will stop Trump’s claims that the process was a witch-hunt based on a false premise, that rapid and absolute consensus makes those arguments harder to reasonably sustain.
The aftermath
About those witch-hunt claims: immediately after the verdicts were delivered, Trump – said by reporters to have looked downcast in the courtroom – appeared outside and gave a preview of the story he will tell again and again in the months ahead.
“This was a disgrace,” he said. “This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt.” He misleadingly called the district attorney “A Soros-backed D.A.”, and claimed the trial was a politically motivated attack by the Biden administration. He claimed he had no hope of a fair trial in New York. “We didn’t do a thing wrong,” he added. “I’m a very innocent man.”
Other Republicans quickly echoed those claims. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign sent out an email asking his supporters for money because he was a “political prisoner”; his fundraising site briefly crashed under the weight of visits.
For its part, the Biden campaign put out a statement saying that the verdict showed that “no one is above the law”, but again redirecting supporters to the election ahead. It also sought to fundraise on the back of the verdict.
Outside the court, Maya Yang and Victoria Bekiempis reported on a “heavy sense of shock and relief” among the protesters and counter-protesters gathered there. The mood on Fox News, unsurprisingly, was febrile; the forthcoming trial of Hunter Biden came up almost immediately. Pundit Jeanine Pirro appeared to raise the spectre of violence: “We are a country that was born of revolution … We are fighters, and I hope it is only at the ballot box. My insides are so angry.”
The other cases
There are three remaining criminal cases against Trump, all arguably more serious than the hush-money trial: two relate to attempts to overturn the 2020 election result, and a third is about the secret documents found at Mar-a-Lago.
But all three appear unlikely to reach trial before the election. Most observers say that Trump’s lawyers have deliberately thrown up procedural questions in order to delay the cases as long as possible. They could also be affected by a pending supreme court case over Trump’s claims of presidential immunity.
If Trump wins, he could shut down the two cases which are being prosecuted on the federal level, and potentially seek to have state prosecutions put on hold.
What happens next
Trump drove to Trump Tower immediately after leaving court. Sentencing has been scheduled for 11 July – four days before the Republican national convention – although it is possible that it will be delayed further.
In this piece, Sam Levine sets out the possible punishments, ranging from up to four years’ imprisonment to fines or community service. He cites experts who consider a prison sentence unlikely, because he is a first-time offender convicted of a non-violent offence. But there has also been some speculation that the judge in the case, Juan Merchan, could put Trump behind bars because of his reputation for taking white-collar crime seriously.
Even if Trump is jailed, his sentence will probably be delayed while he appeals against the verdict. That could take months or even years to play out. He has no option of pardoning himself if he returns to office, because the prosecution was brought on a state level.
There is no legal impediment to Trump running for the presidency as a felon, or even if he is jailed. (That’s happened once before, a century ago.) He could even be president from his cell.
Again: a prison sentence is unlikely. But even the prospect of a president doing community service is an astonishing departure from the norm.
The political fallout
You will have heard the question countless times: could even being convicted of a crime put Donald Trump’s supporters off voting for him? Now that theoretical matter has become a reality. In this piece, David Smith looks at the recent polling, which finds that two-thirds of respondents say that a conviction would make no difference to their vote.
That is unsurprising, given the state of political polarisation in the US – and the most likely consequence for the campaign is renewed energy among committed supporters on both sides. But while that majority who are unmoved by the guilty verdicts is sizeable, it only takes a small percentage shifting to change the outcome of what remains a very close election.
Key to what the impact of the verdicts will be, David writes, is how Joe Biden will handle it. So far, he has avoided commenting on the trial, lest he be accused of political interference. But Biden, who has found success in the past by running as a defender of democracy, has little choice but to talk about Trump’s conviction on the campaign trail. The danger is that his opponent will then cast him as forgetting the pocketbook issues which matter to ordinary Americans.
“The president’s opponent has just handed him the kind of campaign weapon that any candidate would dream of,” David writes. “Biden would be wise to use it with precision.”
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What else we’ve been reading
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Janelle Monáe is at turns satisfyingly kooky, inspiring and sentimental answering readers’ questions, including the revelation that she picks film parts based on whether her pubic hairs tingle. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
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Neanderthals may have been wiped out by deadly infectious diseases spread by Homo sapiens – and the DNA extraction technique that has revealed this possibility is a more powerful tool for understanding the ancient world than anything we can imagine except time travel. That’s Jonathan Kennedy’s premise in this remarkable piece. Archie
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The ongoing purge of left-wing voices from the Labour party is skewered by former MP Chris Mullin: “It is becoming clear that the endorsement of candidates has been cynically delayed until the last moment precisely to ensure that there is no time for any argument or appeal before close of nominations.” Toby
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Will Smith’s rehabilitation is meant to begin with the release of the latest Bad Boys movie next week. Tom Shone’s piece about the way back is a reminder that Hollywood is mad, and “will forgive just about anything but bad box office”. Archie
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An AI generated image saying “All eyes on Rafah” has sprung up on millions of social media feeds across the world. This explainer looks at where it came from and how it’s being used to draw attention to the plight of Palestinians in Gaza. Toby
Sport
Cricket | England will head to Barbados on Friday morning to start the defence of their T20 World Cup title buoyed by a comprehensive seven-wicket victory over Pakistan, achieved with 27 balls remaining. Adil Rashid (above) was named man of the match after taking two wickets and conceding just 27 in his four overs.
Football | The Ipswich Town manager, Kieran McKenna, has signed a new contract, meaning he will lead the Premier League newcomers into next season despite interest from Brighton, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Athletics | Matthew Hudson-Smith set a new European 400 metres record with a storming season-opening run at the Diamond League meeting in Oslo. Hudson-Smith, who won in 44.07 seconds, said the result would help him prepare for “the big one, which is the Olympics”.
The front pages
Almost all today’s front pages were all subject to a late change last night – and you can see a wrap of global media reaction to the verdict here.
On the front page of the Guardian, the headline “Guilty on all counts” with a picture of Trump, eyes downcast. The Telegraph has two words: “Trump guilty”, while the Daily Mail has the same thing with an exclamation mark attacked. In the Times, it’s “Trump found guilty in hush money trial”. The Mirror headline also has “Trump guilty” under the line of “Historic trial verdict” and a big picture of Trump looking down – alongside an old image of the former president with Stormy Daniels. The Sun has a very similar front page with “Guilty” under the words “Historic U.S verdict”. The i wins the prize for brevity, with “Guilty”. And in the Star it’s “You’ve been Tango’d”, with a very orange-looking felon.
The verdict came too late for the Financial Times and the Daily Express. In the FT, it’s “Voters brace for tax increases despite assurances from Labour and Tories”. The Express has “Exposed! Splits in Labour ranks,” reporting on the Diane Abbott row.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Eric
Netflix
The six-part drama written by Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady) stars Benedict Cumberbatch as genius puppeteer Vincent, the creative force behind a Sesame Street-esque show. When his nine-year-old son goes missing, he conjures a 7ft-tall Muppets-meets-Monsters, Inc. creation called Eric, who follows him round as a manifestation of his hopes, fears and guilt. Awards will doubtless be given to Cumberbatch for his portrait of Vincent’s descent into hellish despair. Lucy Mangan
Book
This Strange Eventful History – Claire Messud
Shakespeare’s Jaques, from As You Like It, declared that the “strange eventful history” of human life has seven “acts” or “ages”. Messud has taken her structure as well as her title from his famous speech, for this ambitious and compelling novel about a Franco-Algerian family. This is a big novel spanning continents and generations, but it also has the essential small virtues of precision and imaginative sympathy. Lucy Hughes-Hallett
Film
The Beast
Cinemas nationwide from Friday
Bertrand Bonello’s new film is a vast unsettling dream of the future and the past starring Léa Seydoux – and it may be his best yet. It is a film about the shock of the new, the realisation that technology is on the point of modifying and even abolishing humanity without our consent; it invites us to test our thumb on the cutting edge of modernity and draw blood. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
Gangster
BBC Sounds, episodes weekly
Investigative journalist Livvy Haydock goes beyond the gangster cliches with her thoughtful interviews in this new series focusing on Viv Graham. With his imposing demeanour and full control of Newcastle’s bouncers, there’s no doubt Graham was feared, but Haydock shows the heartbreak his family felt after his 1993 murder, which remains unsolved. Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
Exposing Israel’s secret ‘war’ on the ICC
Michael Safi speaks to Harry Davies and Yuval Abraham on how Israeli intelligence agencies tried to derail an ICC war crimes investigation
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Diversifying and electrifying TV schedules in equal measure, Nida Manzoor’s comedy We Are Lady Parts has been a runaway success. The second run of the Bafta-nominated series about an all-female Muslim punk band began airing in the UK on Channel 4 this week, and Manzoor has seriously raised the stakes.
Speaking to the Guardian’s Chitra Ramaswamy, she explained how she invited none other than Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai to appear on the show – and she said yes. Writes Ramaswamy, Manzoor’s “confidence and clarity of vision” are clear to see in this new series, which “pulls off that rare feat of being even better than the first one … It’s her best work yet; not so much breaking the mould as making it from scratch in the shape of a Muslim punk in a niqab, surrounded by a halo of vape smoke.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until Monday.