The French government has said it will scrap another belt-tightening measure in the social security budget in a move widely seen as a further concession to the far right, which has threatened to lodge a no-confidence motion if its policy demands are not met.
In a statement on Monday the government said that, contrary to plans that had been outlined in the budget, there would be no change to medication reimbursements in 2025.
Earlier on Monday, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party had said that without further concessions it would announce a censure motion against Michel Barnier’s government later in the day.
The New Popular Front (NPR), a leftwing coalition that includes the Socialists, Greens, hard left and Communist party, had already announced it will lodge a motion of no confidence if the prime minister pushes through the budget without a vote.
Jordan Bardella, the RN president, had said that “without a last-minute miracle” his party would trigger the motion.
“Everything we have proposed is in the interests of the French people. All the amendments we have tabled in recent weeks, everything has been knowingly despised and ignored,” Bardella told RTL radio on Monday.
It was unclear immediately if the concession on medical reimbursements would be enough to satisfy the RN.
If lodged on Monday afternoon, a no-confidence vote would take place 48 hours later – on Wednesday. If supported by MPs from the left and far right it would pass, toppling the government not even three months after it was formed.
Barnier would then be forced to offer his resignation but he and his ministers could remain in a caretaker administration until the president, Emmanuel Macron, announces a new government.
Macron could ask parties to seek a new coalition majority or appoint a strictly technocratic government, bringing in people from outside political circles to administer the country until new legislative elections can be held in the summer. No general election can take place within 12 months of the previous vote.
Last week, Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator who was appointed by Macron in September, said a no-confidence vote would spark a “big storm and very serious turbulence on the financial markets”.
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France has been heading towards this political crisis since Macron called a snap election in June that left parliament divided into three roughly equal political factions – left, centre and far right – but none of which has an absolute majority.
The standoff was caused by the government seeking to tackle France’s growing public deficit through €60bn (£50bn) in tax increases and spending cuts in its 2025 budget.
The 2025 social security budget bill has been rejected by both sides of the political spectrum and Barnier is very likely to have to use the controversial article 49.3 of the French constitution to push the legislation through without a vote.
Before Monday’s move on medical reimbursements, Barnier had already made concessions designed to appease Le Pen, including scrapping a planned increase in electricity tax hike.
But the RN has been asking for more, including additional protection for households, small businesses and pensioners against the budget measures. It has called for proposals to delay an inflation-linked rise in pensions to be scrapped.
If the censure motion is successful, it would be only the second time a French government has been brought down since 1958, when the fifth republic was formed. Georges Pompidou’s government was the last to be torpedoed in such a manner in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president.
Barnier, a rightwing conservative political veteran, has led a minority government since September after political paralysis during the summer after the general election. His appointment caused anger among both NPR and RN, both of which claimed they had more legitimacy to govern after winning more seats than the centrists.
Le Pen, who heads the RN group in the national assembly, wrote in Le Figaro last week that if the government fell there would be no catastrophic “shutdown”. She said her party would not be made “scapegoats for the incompetence of governments unfit for debate and compromise”.