There are two opportunities to present a motion of no confidence: after the vote on the social security budget, and after that on the state budget.
The social security budget vote is up first, and at the moment is scheduled for Monday. If Barnier employs 49.3, lawmakers will have 48 hours to bring forward a motion of no confidence. Once the motion is brought forward, it must be voted on within three days.
The National Rally said in a statement on Thursday that it believes the social security budget as constructed remains “unacceptable,” and demanded that Barnier scrap three proposals: the delay to the inflation adjustment for pensions, a plan to stop reimbursing patients for certain types of drugs, and a proposal related to corporate tax relief.
What happens if the government falls?
It’s not exactly clear. In the immediate term, the budget won’t be approved.
Don’t expect a U.S.-style shutdown that would paralyze the country’s administration, though, as the French constitution provides for at least two stopgap solutions. The first allows the government to put forward a so-called “special law” allowing the state to effectively carry over the previous year’s budget for a few months.
The second option is more complicated, but would see the parliamentary debate continue until Dec. 21 and then allow the government to adopt the budget via a government order. Barnier would still expose himself to a no-confidence vote, which he’d most likely lose, but the budget would be adopted.