Friday, December 27, 2024

Everything we know about the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash as 38 dead

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Multiple sources have claimed the plane was downed by a Russian air defence system

Traffic came to a stop, flags were lowered, and the people of Azerbaijan fell into silence on Thursday as the country observed a day of mourning following the deaths of almost 40 people in a Christmas Day plane crash.

Family and friends of loved ones are demanding answers as to why the Azerbaijan Airlines flight had flown hundreds of miles off its expected route.

Multiple sources have claimed the plane was downed by a Russian air defence system, while Russian and Azerbaijani officials have urged people not to speculate.

Here, The i Paper takes a look at everything we know.

Where was the plane travelling and where did it crash?

Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 took off from the country’s capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny.

The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 crashed while attempting to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying across the Caspian Sea.

The wreckage site is around 3km (1.8 miles) from the city.

It had diverted from an area of Russia that Moscow has recently defended against Ukrainian drone attacks. The reason it was diverted has not yet been confirmed.

Flight-tracking software was able to record part of the path taken by Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 before the crash. It was due to head north to Grozny (highlighted with a blue pin), but ended up east and over the Caspian sea (Photo: Flight Radar)

What happened to the people on board?

The passenger jet was carrying 67 passengers and five crew, with citizens from Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on board.

Thirty-eight people died.

Video from the ground shows the aircraft was cleaved in two, with some of the 29 survivors miraculously able to walk away from the wreckage which lay upside down.

A drone view shows the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan December 25, 2024. REUTERS/Azamat Sarsenbayev TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
The back of the plane landed upside down and separated from the front of the craft (Photo: Azamat Sarsenbayev/Reuters)

Azerbaijani state media has released footage of one of the survivors in a hospital bed and confirmed 12 of the survivors were being transported on Thursday back to the country.

Five of the passengers need to travel with a medical team and on an aircraft from the Ministry of Emergency Situations, while the others will return on a regular flight.

Why did it crash?

Authorities across Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia are investigating the plane crash.

The moment the plane hurtled towards the ground before crashing and bursting into flames was captured on a mobile phone.

Early theories that have emerged include issues of bad weather as well as potentially a bird strike. However, images showing holes in the fuselage have prompted speculation they were caused by bullets or shrapnel.

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lays on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
Rescuers work at the wreckage site (Photo: Kazakhstan’s Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)

Claims bad weather and a bird strike played a role were issued by Azerbaijan and Russia.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev deterred people from speculating on the cause of the accident but said the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.

“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed Aliyev’s comments dissuading people from speculating and said to wait until the investigation has delivered its conclusions.

Rosaviatsia, Russia’s civil aviation authority, said preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.

Claims of a bird strike causing the crash were questioned by experts, including Richard Aboulafia, analyst at the consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory.

He told news agency Reuters that such a collision usually resulted in the aircraft landing quickly in the nearest field.

Did the plane come under fire?

Some commentators have said holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it may have come under fire.

Claims of an accidental strike from Russia have come from independent sources, as well as pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian voices and reportedly from Azerbaijani officials.

News agency Reuters reported that four sources have confirmed to them the plane was hit by Russian air defence systems.

Euronews reported that Azerbaijani government sources had confirmed: a “missile was fired at [the plane] during drone air activity above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight.”

Asked about the general claims of a Russian strike on the plane, Peskov told reporters “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict”.

Officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan also steered the press to wait for official answers.

AKTAU, KAZAKHSTAN - DECEMBER 25: A view of the scene after an Azerbaijan Airlines flight with 67 people on board, traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in Russia's Chechnya region, crashed near the Kazakh Caspian city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. According to the ministry, 62 passengers and five crew members were on board Flight 8432, which caught fire following the crash, adding that emergency responders are working to extinguish it. (Photo by Issa Tazhenbayev/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Holes can be seen in the plane (Photo: Issa Tazhenbayev/Anadolu via Getty)

One of the specific claims is the aircraft was hit by Russian air defence systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the destination of the flight and provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya.

Russian media made as yet unverified claims that another drone attack took place on Chechnya on Wednesday.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation risk management company based in England, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system”.

The path taken by Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 before the crash. Pic: Flight Radar
The final route taken by Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 (Photo: Flight Radar)

The Times reported that Russian independent military analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team stated on Wednesday night that the damage could be from a strike by a Pantsir-S1 air defence missile.

They also cited pro-Kremlin Telegram channels also circulating the idea the plane may have been hit.

The i Paper has seen both prominent pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian Telegram and X accounts pushing the unverified claim the plane was hit by a missile.

One pro-Ukraine Telegram channel with almost 70,000 subscribers published the accusation without supplying any verifiable evidence: “This morning, the Embraer 190 aircraft of the Azerbaijan Airlines, which was flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defense system.”

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