The daily chart is the key focus for EUR/USD at the moment:
EUR/USD daily chart
The pair is easing back below the 1.0800 level currently, with the dollar staying in charge amid higher yields this week. The latter is also weighing on the overall risk mood and that is doubling the dollar’s advantage across the board.
Of note, we are seeing EUR/USD slip back below its 100-day moving average (red line) of 1.0808. That’s the first key hurdle that sellers are looking to stay past.
But just below that, there are some other key support levels in play nearby. The 200-day moving average (blue line) is seen at 1.0786 and that is another big one in play currently. That will act alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 1.0782 in offering buyers a technical spot to lean on, to try and stay in the game.
Otherwise, a firm break below that region will see sellers regain more control. And that will likely set off the next leg lower in the pair, going into next week’s ECB meeting decision and US jobs report.
There won’t be much support levels to pick on the way down from there. The 50.0 Fib retracement level comes in next at 1.0748 before the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 1.0713. But I’d figure that sellers might be more interested in a drive towards the 1.0700 mark.
However, keep in mind that we are also having to contend with month-end flows this week. It doesn’t look like Barclays’ model is getting it right thus far. But the stronger dollar flows we’re seeing could just be that, and might not translate to the same in the week ahead.