- ETH could rally 120% by the end of the current market cycle
- ETH ETF launch could catalyze the rally and its relative strength against BTC
Ethereum [ETH] could post triple-digit gains by the end of this current market bull run, according to founders of the blockchain data intelligence firm Glassnode.
The founders, Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, who go by the pseudonym Negentropic on X (formerly Twitter), claimed that based on historical patterns, ETH could surge to $7.5k on the charts.
“We believe market moves in structures. And this structure gives us a target at ~7500 as a Final High for #ETH.”
Source: X/Negentropic
Negentropic made their conclusion based on ETH’s price reaction to the multi-year trendline resistance. The trendline resistance marked previous cycle tops.
Additionally, before ETH’s last explosive cycle run, a price consolidation ensued, similar to the structure seen on the chart in relation to its current price action (yellow).
ETF to catalyze ETH’s 120% potential rally?
The founders had previously underscored ETH’s increasing relative strength against Bitcoin [BTC] and the rest of the market. They tipped the upcoming launch of the ETH ETF as a key reason and possible catalyst for a new ETH cycle.
“In a Bitcoin-dominated market, Ethereum is showing relative strength. Speculation over an imminent ETF launch could be the catalyst. Is this the start of a new cycle?”
Source: X/Negentropic
Despite improving ETH’s relative strength against BTC and the rest of the market, the ETHBTC ratio was stuck in a downtrend. The ETHBTC ratio tracks ETH’s relative performance against BTC on the price charts.
However, another analyst, TechCharts, noted that ETH could confirm BTC’s outperformance if it breaks above its downtrend.
“$ETHBTC outlook is improving for $ETH. Breakout from downtrend channel can favor $ETH outperformance.”
Source: X/TechCharts
The ETH ETF’s launch could further define the trend of the ETHBTC ratio. In fact, according to the SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the approval and launch could happen in the summer itself, possibly in July.
Similar expectations were reflected by Polymarket too, a predictions platform. It revealed that the odds of approval in early July were above 70%. Here, it’s worth noting that the ETFs are estimated to attract $15 billion in flows by 2025 by Bitwise.
At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $3.4k, with bearish readings from the derivatives market. The overall volume was down 18%, and Open Interest (OI) rates, which track liquidity, had dropped by 3% in the last 24 hours.