T20 is supposed to be a simple game, but England’s World Cup defence has become unpleasantly complicated. Their chances of reaching the Super 8s, and avoiding more World Cup embarrassment, rest on two matches and six different opponents: Oman, Namibia, Australia, Scotland, net run-rate and the Antigua weather.
One false move – a washout, an unspoken carve-up between Australia and Scotland, even a damagingly narrow win over Oman or Namibia – and England’s era of white-ball brilliance will be over. But if they sneak through, the slate will be clean and it will feel like 2022 all over again.
England’s task tonight is to marmalise Oman and give their run-rate a good old jumpstart. The likelihood is that if England win both games and Australia beat Scotland, there will be a sufficient swing for England to qualify. But there are all kinds of reasons why that might not happen.
Jos Buttler and Matthew Mott are probably fighting for their jobs, which is difficult to reconcile with the fact England have lost only one game at this tournament. It’s true they didn’t play well against Australia, or in the washout against Scotland, and the decision to omit Reece Topley against the Aussies gets worse by the day. But they’ve still only lost one game, so to compare this with their 50-over nightmare in India last year feels premature.
“I don’t think it’s s— or bust quite yet,” said Buttler. “I think it’s quite clear what we need to do and how we need to play. First and foremost, we need to win the game against Oman to have any chance going forward into the next one. So we have to earn the right to try and win the game. And if we can get ourselves in a position to affect our net run-rate, obviously that’s what we need to do.”
The match begins at 8pm. Weather permitting.