Emmy Predictions: ‘Shōgun’ & ‘The Bear’ Are Likely To Clean Up

On Sunday we will be celebrating the winners of the 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, the second time this year after January’s strike-delayed 75th Emmys, but we know the results will be, at least in part, quite different (well maybe not for The Bear). So here is my stab at predicting just who those winners will be.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

With only The Crown returning from the lineup here just eight months ago, what might have been a fresh, wide open race now seems utterly predictable in terms of a runaway winner. After already setting a record for a single season series with 14 wins at last weekend’s Creative Arts ceremonies, FX’s Shōgun with 25 nominations overall to lead this year’s list of nominees will certainly prevail here, proof that FX’s last minute move from Limited Series to Drama Series will pay off big time.

THE WINNER: SHŌGUN

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

Coming off a first season with an impressive 10 Emmys, and now already seven wins at last weekend’s Creative Arts, FX’s The Bear looks set to have a very big night. But the race could be competitive as HBO/Max’s third season of Hacks is widely considered its best and seems poised for a possible upset. In fact with the last season of Curb Your Enthusiasm, the rising popularity of Only Murders In The Building, and Abbott Elementary, this category is actually a race, but ultimately only one show has the mojo.

THE WINNER: THE BEAR

OUTSTANDING LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES

Two staples and past winners in the category, True Detective and Fargo, are back in the hunt as the two leading nomination getters with 19 and 15 nods respectively. Still, it seems more likely that Netflix with either Baby Reindeer, the biggest sensation of the season in the category, or the gorgeous Black & White Ripley, might be more possible as both won multiple Emmys at the Creative Arts. That might mean we have a real contest here. My hunch is to go with Steven Zaillian’s exquisitely-made adaptation of Patricia Highsmith’s The Talented Mr. Ripley over the more talked-about Baby Reindeer.

THE WINNER: RIPLEY

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

With The Morning Show’s Jennifer Aniston going directly against co-star Reese Witherspoon, the possibility is high that they cancel each other out. And with  Shōgun’s Anna Sawai the only one from that juggernaut in this category I think she gets an advantage — although Mr. And Mrs. Smith’s Maya Erskine could be an upset victor.

THE WINNER: ANNA SAWAI, SHŌGUN

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

 Shōgun is likely to continue its sweep with star Hiroyuki Sanada a victor here, but the highly respected Gary Oldman, finally nominated for Slow Horses, could easily break his momentum. Emmy favorite for Mr. And Mrs. Smith Donald Glover might factor in as well.

THE WINNER: HIROYUKI SANADA , SHŌGUN

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Quinta Brunson took this prize in January for Abbott Elementary but Jean Smart, who had won for both previous seasons of Hacks, was not eligible. Now she is back for the third, competing not just against that one recent Emmy winner, Brunson, but also another winner from January, The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri, who this time has bumped up from supporting to lead.

THE WINNER: JEAN SMART, HACKS

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

It is the last chance to give Larry David the prize after 12 seasons of Curb Your Enthusiasm and there seems to be support for a Martin Short victory for Only Murders In The Building, but the way Emmy voters often work is to repeat. That means The Bear will continue a very good night.

THE WINNER: JEREMY ALLEN WHITE, THE BEAR

LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

A tough category to call. You could give a convincing argument for Brie Larson, Juno Temple, Sofia Vergara and Naomi Watts, but icon Jodie Foster, so good in True Detective: Night Country, has remarkably never won an Emmy. This year, that will change.

THE WINNER: JODIE FOSTER TRUE DETECTIVE: NIGHT COUNTRY

LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

This is really hard to call. Jon Hamm has two nominations this year, and he was widely praised for Fargo, as was Andrew Scott for his chilling Ripley, and Tom Hollander’s Truman Capote in Feud: Capote vs. The Swans won plaudits. Richard Gadd made headlines — and controversy — with Baby Reindeer, but for some reason I think this could be Bomer’s night. Just a hunch as this could really go any which way.

THE WINNER: MATT BOMER FELLOW TRAVELERS

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

With four women competing against each other from The Morning Show, there is a lane for Elizabeth Debicki to pass co-star Lesley Manville playing Princess Diana so heartbreakingly in The Crown.

THE WINNER: ELIZABETH DEBICKI, THE CROWN

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Two from Shōgun plus a couple of solid performers from The Crown and Slow Horses in an impressive category that really comes down to which of the three nominees from The Morning Show will take it: Jon Hamm, Mark Duplass or Billy Crudup. All three are deserving. Crudup has won before and he likely will again.

THE WINNER: BILLY CRUDUP THE MORNING SHOW

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Veteran Carol Burnett could tempt voters with her turn in Palm Royale, as might Meryl Streep, no less, in Only Murders In The Building, but Hannah Einbinder had such a strong year, it will be hers.

THE WINNER: HANNAH EINBINDER, HACKS

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

The contenders here comprise a strong lineup, but pattern-voting will prevail. Last year’s winner, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, will repeat.

THE WINNER: EBON MOSS-BACHRACH, THE BEAR

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

So many terrific performances here to choose from, but expect the extraordinary Kali Reis to join co-star Jodie Foster in the winners circle.

THE WINNER: KALI REIS TRUE DETECTIVE: NIGHT COUNTRY

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Robert Downey Jr. could join the rare club of winning both an Oscar and Emmy in the same year, but his show, The Sympathizer, doesn’t have the buzz here. There could also be sentimentality for the late Treat Williams, but I would be surprised if anyone but Jonathan Bailey takes this one home.

THE WINNER: JONATHAN BAILEY, FELLOW TRAVELERS

TALK SERIES

Three traditional late night series battle it out against the once and future champ, The Daily Show, which has all the buzz with Jon Stewart’s triumphant return in a Presidential election year.

THE WINNER: THE DAILY SHOW

SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES

As it was last year, this category boils down to John Oliver vs Saturday Night Live.

THE WINNER: LAST WEEK TONIGHT WITH JOHN OLIVER

The 76th Annual Emmy Awards air at 8pm ET/5PM PT Sunday September 15, 2024 on ABC.