Labour might relax the ban on the sale of new petrol cars that is scheduled to come into force in six years’ time, according to reports today. The government will reportedly allow hybrids to still be sold until 2035, on the grounds that they are proving far more popular with consumers than the entirely battery driven cars. In truth, this tinkering doesn’t really matter: government targets for electric vehicles are completely meaningless anyway.
By definition, it is impossible to know what technical breakthroughs may be made over the next few years
The 2030 ban already looks ambitious. The European Union is only aiming for 2035, with the German auto-makers putting on plenty of pressure to postpone it. We can all argue about whether that is the right decision or not. And yet there is also a far larger point that is often overlooked. All the shifting of the EV targets does is illustrate that they are completely hypothetical anyway.
There are two reasons why. First, the technology is still developing very rapidly. Hydrogen could turn out to be the perfect fuel for cars. Biodiesel might make huge strides. Natural gas has potential. Who knows. By definition, it is impossible to know what kind of technical breakthroughs may be made over the next few years. If something far better comes along, we will all forget about buying an EV and switch to that instead. Next, the targets are not enforceable anyway. If people won’t buy EVs, and there is plenty of evidence that the majority of motorists are not willing to do so right now, then what is the government going to do? There are 33 million private cars in the UK. Without them, the whole country would simply grind to a halt. In the face of a buyer’s strike, ministers will be completely powerless.
In reality, all the targets and bans are purely speculative. Electric vehicles may well be helpful for hitting Net Zero targets, although there is plenty of room for debate about that given all the raw materials they require, and if so then tax breaks and incentives will encourage their adoption. But all the bans, targets and quotas are nonsense. None of them will ever actually be enforced – even if they allow grandstanding ministers to boast about how ambitious their plans are.