After topping $630 million in its first full week of release, Marvel Studio’s record-breaking R-rated super-sequel Deadpool & Wolverine eyes at least $820 million worldwide through Sunday to become the second-biggest film of 2024, behind animated blockbuster Inside Out 2’s $1.5 billion so far.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 22: (L-R) Ryan Reynolds, Shawn Levy, and Hugh Jackman attend the Deadpool … [+]
A $186 million Monday through Thursday haul is obviously an enormous sum, good for more than $46 million per day on average. That suggests strong positive word of mouth for Deadpool & Wolverine is driving record-breaking business so far — but the first two Deadpool movies averaged a roughly 2.7x final multiplier, so we’ll see if and by how much the new film can best that average.
Even a 2.7x result, however, would easily put Deadpool & Wolverine over the $1 billion mark and put it in shooting distance of Joker for the title of biggest R-rated movie in global box office history. Assuming a roughly 60% weekly decline going forward, Deadpool & Wolverine might gross approximately $1.08 billion, which is just barely ahead of Joker’s $1.0789 billion.
If, however, the film holds closer to a 55% decline until its final few weeks, and then enjoys softer 45% weekly drops or thereabouts, then Deadpool & Wolverine might top $1.14 billion. Any overperformance going forward pushes it toward $1.2 billion.
Meaning it’s doubtful that Deadpool & Wolverine can catch up with, let alone overtake, Inside Out 2’s historic $1.5 billion run as the biggest animated theatrical release in cinema history. Pixar’s sequel should top out around $1.55 billion, unless it does even better than expected, which it has pretty much every week so far.
I still think there’s a good chance we see a PG-13 rerelease of Deadpool & Wolverine at some point this year, which could push it into $1.2 billion territory, assuming it doesn’t get there sooner by beating expectations again this weekend and subsequent days ahead. But regardless, there’s good opportunity here and I hope Marvel doesn’t miss it — I still believe Once Upon a Deadpool was the best Deadpool movie prior to Deadpool & Wolverine, and frankly I think they’re nearly tied and might wind up sharing the crown once the dust settles.
Both Deadpool and Wolverine are returning to the big screen in Avengers: Secret Wars on May 7th, 2027. I hope it won’t be the last time we seem them, be it together or solo, but I think there are reasons to believe a post-Secret Wars MCU is going to look a lot different, an amalgamation of parts from various worlds to form a new MCU.
Included in the future changes could be a live-action Miles Morales Spider-Man — which, I’m guessing, means Peter Parker will sacrifice himself at some point in Avengers: Secret Wars, mirroring his mentor Tony Stark/Iron Man’s sacrifice in Avengers: Infinity War.
If Deadpool likewise sacrifices himself somehow in Avengers: Secret Wars, then it will be quite a shocker, since those are probably two of the biggest “sure things” Marvel has going at the moment in terms of audience love and box office gold. Of course, I could be completely wrong about any impending doom for the two heroes, but I doubt the Marvel roster of superheroes will all survive the events of Doomsday and Secret Wars.
On the other hand, Deadpool has only just made his debut in the MCU, and already he’s a top-tier performer of the billion dollar sort, at a time when Marvel definitely needs the revenue and the good press. I think the magic comes from smartly pairing Deadpool with the right other heroes, Wolverine being among the ideal partners, but there are enough others to make it worth Marvel’s while to keep him around.
If Deadpool & Wolverine keeps overperforming, then the odds of Ryan Reynolds’ incarnation of the Merc with a Mouth returning — even if he dies in Secret Wars, because at this point anyone can return — keep going up. Likewise, Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine. At least, for the next few years. If they continue to prove this successful, it’s hard to imagine Marvel deciding to turn that spout off as long as Reynolds and Jackman are game to come back, or to pair up with additional characters.
And let’s face it, if any character is capable of jumping from one universe to another and surviving past death to star in a whole new Marvel cinematic world, it’s Deadpool. He’s custom-made for precisely that sort of thing, if and when it’s desirable — and he’d tell you it’s always desirable.