Audiences are heckling Joker: Folie À Deux off the box office stage this weekend, with (in every sense of the word) roughly $45 million domestic and a disastrous D grade via audience polling at Cinemascore. At Rotten Tomatoes, the film’s reputation continues to drop, now at 32% “Rotten” for both critics and audiences.
Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga star in “Joker: Folie à Deux.”
As I said previously, unless international markets come to the rescue and China delivers big numbers, there is the potential for a complete box office collapse. Yet, even if foreign receipts manage to double domestic numbers, that still puts Joker: Folie À Deux at $135 million opening weekend, so a decent 3x final multiplier still barely puts it north of $400 million worldwide by the end of its run.
The problem with that math is, a 3x final multiplier is unlikely, based on that D grade from audiences.
For comparison, Black Adam debut at $67 million off a B+ grade, while The Flash opened to $55 million with a B grade, and Shazam! Fury of the Gods opened to $30 million at a B+ as well. Over at Marvel Studios, The Marvels opened to $46 million and landed a B grade from viewers.
How did those turn out? Black Adam topped them all with $393 million worldwide by the end of its run. The Flash came in second with $271 million, followed by The Marvels with $206 million. In last place is Shazam! Fury of the Gods with $134 million.
Hoping for international audiences to double domestic numbers just to get to $400 million tells you how bad the situation probably is. Because if, instead of a 3x final multiplier and foreign tickets doubling domestic, we wind up seeing a 2.7x multiplier, then it finishes at about $365 million. And at 2.5x, it will gross $338 million.
Joker: Folie À Deux’s nearly $200 million budget plus marketing costs puts “break even” at north of $500 million, and I see no path to that figure unless something entirely unexpected and major changes in the next 24 hours.
So if expectations hold through the rest of the weekend, then all we’ll really be doing from this point forward is waiting to see how much of a loss it takes.
Now, let’s be realistic about some of this math — the pain going forward will be shared to varying degrees by Warner, DC Studios, Domain Entertainment, and Joint Effort. And total merchandising revenue with much higher profit margins, not to mention pre-sales and other ancillary revenue streams will probably cover the rest of the spread in the long run.
There’s also still a chance Joker: Folie À Deux gets award season attention and some Oscar nominations — at the very least, the terrific performances and production design might result in nods. In that case, we might expect a boost to its post-theatrical revenue (maybe even a Christmas double-feature rerelease with the original Joker, if nothing else is catching fire in those final weeks of the year and headed into an easy stretch in early 2025).
The point is that, despite the harsh doses of financial reality you hear about Joker: Folie À Deux in the entertainment press this weekend, including from yours truly, the truth is also that this film is from a prior regime, an investment in filmmaker Todd Phillips’ vision because he’s delivered billions of dollars to studio coffers, and the film series was ending anyway. Often times, a swing and a miss is worth it just to keep that person on your team and at the plate.
Additionally, as far as losses go, this one isn’t too hard for the new WBD and DC Studios leadership to stomach, not only because they let a prior project go forward with artistic control in the hands of the artists, but also because they’re cutting ties with prior iterations of DC as a prelude to next year’s rebooted DCU in the form of Superman.
Whether or not negative publicity and audience disinterest in another DC film project (even a sequel to a billion dollar earner) is a bad sign for DC Studios in terms of audience willingness to give them another shot any time soon, or if it simply helps further dilute the presence and impact of those former versions of DC cinema ahead of an inevitable marketing blitz to rebrand the DCU next year, remains to be seen.
Regardless, there are lessons in Joker: Folie À Deux’s financial misfortunes.
First and foremost, budgets — yes, even for these big filmmaker-driven ambitious projects — need to get back under some control. It’s not necessary to scrimp or underpay anyone to create great visionary projects within relatively reasonable expenses.
2017’s The Greatest Showman is a perfect example of a big, elaborate, star-studded full-blown musical extravaganza kept to a very reasonable — but also still high enough to deliver the goods — $85 million, and grossed $462 million. Even this year’s upcoming big-budget star-filled visual effects musical extravaganza Wicked is budgeted at a more reasonable $145 million.
Besides the budget, Joker: Folie À Deux might have benefited from marketing itself as a musical, and giving the musical elements a far more dominant and resonant position in the film, not to mention adding more humor into the mix.
And the title probably didn’t help matters, when something like Joker: Mad Love might’ve been easier to remember for average audiences who mostly remain passively aware of films and titles, enhancing the value of being memorable catchy.
Mad Love is the title of a comic written by Paul Dini and Bruce Timm — later turned into an episode of the animated series The New Adventures of Batman. (It’s also the film title I suggested in articles during the aftermath of 2016’s Suicide Squad, when we heard word of a Joker and Harley spinoff, and I even said a musical would be a fun way to approach it). Fans in particular recognize it, so there’s built-in appeal and some nostalgia factor to tap into as well.
I can’t help wondering if that sort of more mainstream-appealing title, plus highlighting the big musical numbers in the trailers, might’ve generated at least more public interest in the film, especially on opening weekend.
But ultimately, none of that type of speculation or woulda-shoulda-coulda matters, if audiences don’t like the film. And unfortunately, they clearly don’t like Joker: Folie À Deux.
I don’t see much hope of sentiment being significantly different elsewhere around the world, so this looks like another also-ran in a 2024 where even the biggest beloved history-making blockbusters — Inside Out 2 as the highest-grossing animated picture in history, Deadpool & Wolverine becoming the all-time highest-grossing R-rated movie — were ultimately just helping prop up a sagging year.