The price of coffee is set to remain “very high” and is unlikely to drop until the middle of next year amid intense pressure on supply chains, the Italian coffee company Lavazza has said.
“We have never seen such a spike in price as the trend right now,” said Giuseppe Lavazza, who chairs the company. He admitted that he had been wrong to predict last year that prices would begin to fall this year. On Monday, prices reached $4,300 (£3,356) a tonne.
“The coffee supply chain is dramatically under pressure,” he said in comments reported by the Financial Times. “Coffee prices are not going down … [they’re] going to stay very high.”
Worsening harvest conditions in its major production areas of Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia, and shipping disruption caused by the Middle East conflict have exacerbated inflationary pressures, helping prices reach 15-year highs, he said.
For UK consumers, this has meant the price of a 1kg bag of beans rising by 15% in a year, and Giuseppe Lavazza said this could increase by 20% to 25% over the coming year.
A flat white at the company’s cafe off Regent Street in central London now costs £3.50 to take away or £5.50 to drink in, reflecting current costs.
“We have faced very, very strong headwinds. I don’t see any reason why coffee prices will go down,” Lavazza said.
However, this has not dented the “strong trend” of UK consumers turning to beans to make fresh coffee at home, which began when the pandemic closed cafes but has showed no sign of slowing.
In 2023, the company recorded net profits of €68m, down from€95m in 2022.
Lavazza said: “People love it so much. And we think there’s an environmental element too, of people wanting to move away from using pods.”
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The UK retail coffee market is worth £1.3bn, growing by 3.9% year on year, according to Nielsen figures, driven by price inflation of 3.8%.
Lavazza said sales volumes were up 2.9% in 2023 compared with the year before, or the equivalent of 32m more cups of Lavazza coffee on two years ago.
Coffee remains a staple for Britons, who drink 95m cups every day.