Friday, October 18, 2024

China’s Third-Quarter GDP Grows 4.6%, Slightly Beating Expectations

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Thanks for joining us. Here are the key takeaways from China’s release of major economic data for the third quarter and a separate announcement by the central bank:

  • China’s economic growth slowed in the three months ended September, but the data was on the whole better than economists had been forecasting. Gross domestic product expanded 4.6% in the third quarter and 4.8% for the first nine months of the year, just below the annual target of “around 5%”
  • Industrial output in September rose the fastest in four months, while retail sales grew the quickest since May. The National Bureau of Statistics said it sees “large room” for policies in the final months of the year, and that it is “very likely” the economy will stabilize and recover
  • Prices for new and existing homes fell faster compared to a year ago, while sales tumbled 24% in the first nine months of 2024 and property investment declined about 10% over the same period
  • The unexpected star of the morning was the People’s Bank of China, with markets lifted by a speech by Governor Pan Gongsheng and an announcement that the bank is starting its support program for share buybacks
  • The CSI 300 Index traded 0.6% higher as the NBS presser ended, with sentiment having been boosted instead by the comments from the PBOC’s Pan, reversing an earlier decline in the benchmark gauge. The yuan traded offshore touched a session high at 7.1225 per dollar after the central bank announcement, while government bond moves were muted

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