- The 30-day MVRV was negative, suggesting a possible accumulation area for ADA.
- While large transactions decreased, active addresses rose, indicating a possible rise to $0.76.
Cardano [ADA] has lost 40.60% of its value in the last 90 days, prompting speculations that the token might be not able to repeat its 2021 performance.
At press time, ADA exchanged hands at $0.45. However, one notable development was that Cardano had regained the 9th market cap spot after Toncoin [TON] occupied it for some time.
However, this development does not validate an exponential rally for the token. Despite the bearish condition, some analysts are predicting a monumental hike for ADA.
ADA nears 2021 breakout point
One of them is Dan Gambardello. According to Gambardello, Cardano has a higher chance of outperforming its 2021 rally. He mentioned this on X (formerly Twitter), noting that the project was more secure, scalable, and decentralized.
He wrote,
“Last cycle at this time, Cardano was down 90% from its all-time high. Many said it was a dead ghost chain. Out of nowhere, it pumped 3,000% from .10 to $3.00. Right now at the same part of this cycle, it’s down 85%. This time more secure, decentralized, and scalable.”
ADA’s all-time high was $3.10 in September 2021. When the token hit the price, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio was 35.94%.
MVRV ratio can be used to identify the tops and bottoms of the market by assessing holders’ profitability. If the metric is extremely high, it means that the cryptocurrency is close to its top.
In this instance, it could be termed undervalued. On the other hand, a low reading suggests that many holders are at a loss, and the token could be undervalued.
Is it time to buy?
As of this writing, Cardano’s 30-day MVRV ratio was -1.402%. This suggests that the token could be undervalued. However, this does not imply that ADA could return to $3 at the peak of this cycle.
Source: Santiment
But if buying pressure increases, the price of the token might be able to hit $0.76. The last time the token hit such levels was in March when altcoins had a short rally.
Furthermore, Cardano’s trading volume might also need to hit impressive levels for the token to rally high. Rising volume indicated increasing interest in a token. If accompanied by a price increase, it could strengthen the uptrend.
Another metric that could influence ADA’s price is the large transactions. This sum is not accessible to the average retail participants on-chain.
Therefore, it acts as a measure of institutional and whale activity with a token. According to IntoTheBlock, the number of ADA involved in large transactions was down to 25.52 billion ($11.48 billion).
A further decrease in this sum could lead ADA’s price downward. If this is the case, the price of the token could fall as low as $0.42.
Source: IntoTheBlock
However, a resurgence in the value could spell good news for the Cardano native token. For example, if institutional players can accumulate over 200 billion ADA, without significant distribution, the price can spike.
Network activity is picking up
Should this be the case, the price of ADA might hit $0.76 as mentioned earlier. In a highly bullish situation, the value of the token could hit the $1 milestone.
In terms of active addresses, AMBCrypto found that the metric increased. Using data from Santiment, the 24-hour active addresses were up to 28,000.
This increase implied a surge in the number of unique wallets participating in successful transactions. But this metric does not influence price all the time— Especially when the rise is mild.
Source: Santiment
However, if activity on the network gets very intense, ADA could gain from it. By the look of things, ADA’s price could be much higher before the end of the bull market.
Is your portfolio green? Check the Cardano Profit Calculator
But expecting the token to hit $3 might be asking too much. At the same time, some participants expect an altcoin season to appear before this cycle hits the top.
If that happens, then ADA could attempt to hit the $3 mark.