As the world nears the end of its “Year of Elections,” Ukraine marks 1,000 days of full-scale war – the most brutal conflict on European soil since World War II.
This year has been challenging for many nations, with political elites navigating a volatile international landscape, persistent inflation, and societal divisions. Donald Trump’s return to the White House in nine weeks’ time brings the prospect of big changes in the US and further uncertainty for America’s allies around the world.
Many I speak to in Ukraine, are simultaneously apprehensive exhausted and resigned to the idea that their fate is now at mercy of big geopolitical players.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, I have made nine trips to Ukraine, many of which included the front line. Inspired by the country’s extraordinary show of courage, I wanted to do as much as I could to document the stories and heroic acts of Ukrainians. Yet, after 1000 days of war, its people are visibly weary. The drip-feeding of weapons – a strategy adopted by the American administration – has helped Ukraine to survive, but is not enough to ensure victory.
Ukraine heroically withstood the initial assault on Kyiv due to in no small part the British training programmes Orbital and Interflex and our NLAWS – the weapons that stopped Russian tanks from entering Kyiv. By the war’s first anniversary, Ukraine had reclaimed significant territory. Yet when Ukrainians prepared for a decisive counteroffensive in 2023, they lacked the firepower to achieve their goals across the vast, 1,000-km front line.
Requests for the next-generation F-16 fighter jets, were met with fragmented supplies of tanks and heavy artillery. As supplies ran low and Ukraine adapted with drone innovations, the West was just beginning to train Ukrainian pilots. Now, as Ukraine works to outpace Russia in electronic warfare, Western partners are still scrambling to provide 155mm ammunition. In Ukraine’s fight against the odds, this lack of synchronisation is a serious disadvantage.
Meanwhile, Russia has forged ahead, establishing an Iranian Shahed drone factory, securing dual-use technology from China, and deepening its no-limits partnership with North Korea. Loopholes in sanctions – some created by the West itself – have kept Russia’s economy afloat.
The failed counteroffensive of 2023 saw Western attention waver, diverted by crises elsewhere, particularly in the Middle East. Ukraine has since shifted to bold operations like the Kursk incursion, taking the fight behind enemy lines. But its partners, once steadfast, now appear hesitant.
The UK, initially Ukraine’s strongest ally, has so far refused to allow the use of long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian airfields and supply lines deep in enemy territory.
This reluctance represents a stark change. Britain, which once led partnerships to provide tanks and fighter jets, now seems diminished. Under Labour, the UK’s power to build coalitions has waned. Sir Keir Starmer has yet to visit Kyiv as Prime Minister – a delay noticed in Ukraine, where questions about Britain’s commitment are beginning to surface.
The stakes will rise further with the next US administration. Will Trump push Ukraine to trade territory for a facade of peace, or will he arm Ukraine to demonstrate strength against Putin? His cabinet choices send mixed signals. Some, like a prospective National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, suggest a tougher stance on Europe, particularly Germany, forcing it to shoulder greater responsibility for Ukraine’s security.
Germany’s “Zeitenwende” (the country’s resolve to lead with a new defence strategy in Europe) remains incomplete, but a centre-Right CDU victory in February could bring stronger leadership. This may benefit Ukraine long-term, but the immediate future depends on continued Western support.
Britain, free from EU constraints, is uniquely positioned to act as a bridge between Europe and the US It can forge new partnerships with Eastern and Northern European nations while revitalising its defence strategy and collaborating with Ukraine’s innovative military-industrial complex.
The solidarity displayed by the British people flying Ukrainian flags and supporting Kyiv – was one of our nation’s finest moments since World War II. Whether this spirit endures and we finish what we started, or whether we falter at the critical moment, remains to be seen.
Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster