Topline
Former President Donald Trump lost a small share of potential backers in the wake of his conviction, but he still leads President Joe Biden, according to a new New York Times/Siena poll.
Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump’s early polling lead slips
Key Facts
Trump leads Biden 47% to 46%, according to the Times/Siena survey that found Trump has lost one point and Biden has gained one among the same group of 2,000 voters polled in April and May, before Trump was convicted last Thursday by a Manhattan jury of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.
An Emerson College survey released Thursday, however, shows Trump’s support has stayed the same, while Biden’s support has increased one point since last month, though Trump’s lead widens to six points with third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., on the ballot.
Of four major polls that overlapped with the timing of the verdict, Biden leads in two of them: He’s ahead by two points in a Reuters/Ipsos survey taken last Thursday and Friday and by one point in a Morning Consult survey taken Friday, while the race is tied in an I&I/TIPP survey and Trump leads by two points in a HarrisX survey conducted last Thursday and Friday.
Biden’s favorability rating exceeded Trump’s for the fifth straight week in a row, the longest stretch since April of last year, according to a Morning Consult survey taken Friday through Sunday—but the poll also found Trump would still beat Biden by one point if the election were held today, a one-point decline since the group’s previous survey taken before the conviction.
An Economist/YouGov survey released Wednesday found Biden and Trump are tied at 42%, with Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein on the ballot.
An I&I/TIPP survey released Monday found Trump and Biden are tied at 41% in a head-to-head matchup, and tied with 38% support if third-party candidates are on the ballot.
Big Number
1. That’s the number of percentage points Trump leads Biden by in a two-way race, compared to 2.2 points when third-party candidates are included, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages.
What To Watch For
In the the seven crucial swing states that will likely decide the election—Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—all of which Biden won narrowly in 2020 with the exception of North Carolina, polls consistently show Trump leads Biden. A May Cook Political Report survey found Trump up by three points on average in the seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leads Biden by four points overall across the battleground states and an April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), with the exception of Wisconsin.
Surprising Fact
In a race this close, Kennedy Jr. has the potential to sway the election with his independent run—though it’s unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widens his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy Jr., West and Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll shows Trump’s lead increases two points with the three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy Jr. draws votes from key Biden supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10% of voters in six battleground states in a five-way contest, but support grows to 18% for voters between the ages of 18 and 29 and 14% for Hispanic voters. And a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead is unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Meanwhile, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a head-to-head race, but beating him by two with Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates on the ballot.
Contra
Polls seem to be skewed in Trump’s favor by disengaged voters who may not participate in the 2024 election, according to a New York Times analysis that found Biden led the last three Times/Siena polls among 2020 voters, but trailed among registered voters overall.
Tangent
Polls have consistently suggested Biden—and the Democratic Party as a whole—have been losing support among key demographics, including Black, Latino and younger voters. A May NPR/PBS/Marist survey found young voters under 45 prefer Biden over Trump by just four points and Biden leads among Gen Z/Millennials by six points in a head-to-head matchup, but the vote swings in Trump’s favor among the two groups (by six points among Gen Z/Millennials and eight among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in the six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trailing him by four points in those states among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups who voted for Biden with more than 60% support in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, such as New York, where he’s up nine points over Trump, according to a May Siena College survey, after beating Trump there by 23 points in 2020.
Key Background
Biden and Trump are poised for a historic rematch after clinching their respective parties’ nominations in March, ending the primary season much earlier in the year than in previous elections. Polls show historically low voter enthusiasm as both candidates have relatively low favorability ratings—below 45%. The NBC poll found 64% voters said they are “very interested” in this year’s election, a 20-year low. Trump has centered his campaign around his legal woes, accusing prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of working at Biden’s behest to hurt his chances of winning the election, though there’s no evidence suggesting the notion is true. Biden, meanwhile, has cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, and has hammered Trump over his appointment of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Polls show the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top issues for voters, while the Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found a majority trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more than Trump on abortion.
Further Reading
These Are The Six Swing States Trump Needs To Take From Biden To Win In November (Forbes)
RFK Jr. Candidacy Hurts Trump More Than Biden, Poll Reports (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)
Post-Trump Conviction Polls Show Warning Signs—Most Independents Think Trump Should Drop Out (Forbes)