Welcome to the latest edition of “Bet On It,” where The Fly looks at news and activity in the sports betting and iGaming space.
SECTOR NEWS: Treasury officials in the United Kingdom are understood to be weighing proposals, put forward by two thinktanks and backed by one of the Labour party’s top five individual donors, to double some of the taxes levied on online casinos and bookmakers, reported The Guardian. Shares of Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) are down $14.57, or 6%, to $226.07 in late Friday trading in New York following the report.
Gan Limited (GAN) announced that it has received approval from the Nevada Gaming Commission, or NGC, for the merger of Gan and a subsidiary of Sega Sammy Creation, or SSC, an affiliate of Sega Sammy Holdings. The closing of the merger remains subject to other customary closing conditions including additional gaming regulatory approvals, and is expected to occur in late 2024 or early 2025. If the merger is completed, each Gan ordinary share issued immediately prior to the effective time of the merger will be automatically cancelled and converted into the right to receive $1.97 in cash with respect to each such ordinary share, without interest and less applicable withholding taxes. Upon the completion of the merger, Gan will cease to be a publicly-traded company and its ordinary shares will be delisted from Nasdaq and deregistered under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.
Penn Entertainment (PENN) expects third quarter retail operations adjusted EBITDAR to be in the range of $465M to $475M. Estimated third quarter retail operations adjusted EBITDAR was negatively impacted by approximately $10M due to unfavorable hold rates within our Northeast segment and volume declines in our South segment associated with severe weather disruptions and hotel remodeling. As disclosed in our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2023, third quarter 2023 retail operations adjusted EBITDAR was positively impacted by $14M in business interruption proceeds related to Hurricane Laura, which was recorded in the South segment. The company is raising its previously estimated Interactive adjusted EBITDA range for the third quarter to $(100) million to $(90) million, up from our previous guidance of $(135) million to $(115) million. Better than expected hold driven by a higher parlay mix from our improving product and lower promotional expenses accounted for the upside.” Shares were up 5% on Monday after the pre-announcement.
Caesars (CZR) announced the launch of Horseshoe Online Casino, which it calls “a cutting-edge online casino app and desktop platform developed for the seasoned casino player.” Caesars stated: “The debut launch of Horseshoe Online Casino in Michigan is made possible through Caesars’ partnership with Sault Ste. Marie Tribe of Chippewa Indians. Those 21 and older in The Great Lakes State can now download the Horseshoe Online Casino app on iOS and Android or visit horseshoeonlinecasino.com to enjoy a dynamic online casino experience with a revolutionary multi-lobby navigation layout modeled after a real-life casino floor layout with curated lobbies dedicated to core casino game mechanics, including high limit slots, private live dealer tables, linked progressive jackpots, variations of poker and roulette, and more… The new platform features a rich collection of exclusive, Horseshoe-branded custom gaming titles, made possible through Caesars’ strategic partnerships with leading gaming providers. Players can explore a range of exciting new titles, including Horseshoe Rising Rewards by Games Global, 2x3x Horseshoe by AGS, Horseshoe 3 Coin Cowboy by Bragg Gaming, and Horseshoe Slick Riches LuckyTap by Design Works Gaming. These titles accompany the platform’s expansive gaming catalog, highlighted by emblematic titles offered across casino floors at Caesars Rewards destinations.”
SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER: Online sports betting performance in September has been promising, according to Barclays, exceeding expectations from the firm’s Q3 preview. Same-state handle growth across Kansas and Maryland is up 22% year-over-year . There were 15 additional NFL games this September compared to last year. The hold rate in Kansas and Maryland was 12.7%, while the broader group of states that reported September results had a hold rate of 12.6%, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the New York weekly data, Barclays told investors. DraftKings (DKNG) achieved a hold of 14% in Kansas and 11.5% in Maryland. Operators also showed restraint on promotions, with promo intensity dropping 20 basis points year-over-year to 5.6% in Kansas, according to the firm. The combination of strong handle and hold growth, along with stabilizing promotions, contributed to a 231% year-over-year increase in net gaming revenue in Kansas, Barclays noted. At the operator level, growth was broad-based. In Kansas and Maryland, Flutter saw handle grow 28% and 32%, with hold rates of 13.7% and 14.2%, up two and 2.8 percentage points, respectively. DraftKings’ handle rose 23% in Kansas and 14% in Maryland, with hold rates of 14.% and 11.5%, up 5.4 and 1.8 percentage points. BetMGM (MGM) saw mixed results with handle down 8% in Kansas but up 6% in Maryland, while hold rates were 15.1% and 11.3%, respectively, both improving year-over-year. Caesars saw handle drop 47% in Kansas but grow 22% in Maryland, with hold rates of 11.3% and 6.3%. Meanwhile, Penn saw handle growth of 27% in Kansas and 53% in Maryland, with hold rates of 10.5% and 9.6%, up 1.1 and 2.9 percentage points, respectively. Promotional spending rationalized across most operators, with Flutter’s promos dropping 50 basis points to 5.7% of handle in Kansas, DraftKings’ down 10 basis points to 5.7%, and BetMGM’s falling 300 basis points to 5.0%. Penn and Caesars saw slight increases in promotional intensity, rising by 20 and 40 basis points year-over-year, though they remained the most conservative, with promotional intensity at 2.6% and 2.2% of handle, respectively. Overall, operators saw significant net gaming revenue growth in Kansas, with DraftKings up 280%, Caesars up 189%, BetMGM up 116%, FanDuel up 87%, and Penn up 44% year-over-year.
NFL WEEK 5: After three consecutive weeks of favorable outcomes for sportsbooks, week five presented a more mixed set of results, Canaccord said. The week started poorly for operators, as underdogs covered the spread in only one of the first eight games, with none winning outright. However, the afternoon slate turned in favor of the sportsbooks when the two largest underdogs of the week both won outright, the firm told investors. Additionally, three of the four standalone games went under the total. College football also provided favorable outcomes for sportsbooks, according to the firm. Total handle grew approximately 11% year-over-year to $521M for the week ending September 29. Gross gaming revenue was up 89% year-over-year to $51M during week four. DraftKings and FanDuel continued their close battle for the top spot by handle in New York, each holding around 38% market share. Fanatics, however, was the biggest mover, with its handle share increasing by 620 basis points year-over-year to 7.5%. FanDuel’s hold percentage helped it maintain its lead in New York by GGR share, at 48% of the total, followed by DraftKings at 34%. ESPN Bet officially launched in New York on Friday, September 27, generating $3M in handle during its first three days of operation. Meanwhile, Penn recently reduced its expected Q3 Interactive segment EBITDA loss by about 25%, thanks to better-than-expected hold rates and lower promotional expenses.
MISSOURI AMENDMENT 2: The following ballot measures have been certified for the Missouri November 5 general election:
- Allow the Missouri Gaming Commission to regulate licensed sports wagering including online sports betting, gambling boats, professional sports betting districts and mobile licenses to sports betting operators;
- restrict sports betting to individuals physically located in the state and over the age of 21
- Allow license fees prescribed by the Commission and a 10% wagering tax on revenues received to be appropriated for education after expenses incurred by the Commission and required funding of the Compulsive Gambling Prevention Fund
- Allow for the general assembly to enact laws consistent with this amendment
State governmental entities estimate onetime costs of $660,000, ongoing annual costs of at least $5.2M, and initial license fee revenue of $11.75M. Because the proposal allows for deductions against sports gaming revenues, they estimate unknown tax revenue ranging from $0 to $28.9M annually. Local governments estimate unknown revenue.
ADDITIONAL ANALYST COMMENTARY: Susquehanna upped the firm’s price target on Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to $122 from $92 and kept a Positive rating on the shares. The firm raised its 2025 estimates and the higher target is a function of both higher 2025 estimates and a higher Macau-based EBITDA multiple of 14x versus 12x previously.
Benchmark raised its price target on Sportradar (SRAD) to $14 from $12 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. After having met with the Sportradar executive team at the G2E conference, the firm is “incrementally more positive” on their near-term growth opportunity in 2025, which is expected to include a meaningful operating leverage opportunity, the analyst tells investors.
Stifel increased the firm’s price target on Caesars to $58 from $56 and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. After management conducted an investor meeting at G2E in Las Vegas, the firm said the tone was “positive” and Stifel believes the market continues to discount the long-term free cash flow potential of Caesars’ brick and mortar business and ability to de-lever.
B. Riley resumed coverage of Light & Wonder (LNW) with a Buy rating and $120 price target. The firm said that despite peer growth outperformance, a “significantly de-levered” balance sheet, and “strong” return of capital policies, Light & Wonder’s valuation is ~40% below its closest peer and 13% below its own historical valuation average. The recent selloff driven the by a preliminary injunction issued over the company’s Dragon Train franchise “creates an even stronger entry point for investors,” the analyst tells investors in a research note. Riley expects Light & Wonder’s market share gains to continue through 2026, driven by improved product depth and breadth, category expansions, and competitor acquisition disruption.
Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl noted that Penn Entertainment presented at G2E on Monday, highlighted by mixed Q3 preliminary results, forthcoming ESPN (DIS) account linking planned before the NBA season, and plenty of enthusiasm around the omnichannel opportunity. Penn’s casino portfolio is performing well, growth projects are progressing, and Interactive has plenty of updates on the way, including ESPN account linking, SGP enhancements, and a standalone iCasino app. Craig-Hallum continues to believe the company is worth significantly more than its current evaluation but execution remains key. The firm has a Buy rating on the shares with a price target of $30.
Susquehanna elevated the firm’s price target on Flutter to $273 from $230 and backed a Positive rating on the stock. The firm slightly tweaked its 2H24 estimates, increased their 2025 and 2026 organic projections in both its US and its non-US portfolios, and incorporated its pending Italian/Brazil acquisitions as of 7/1/25.
Susquehanna also boosted its price target on DraftKings to $50 from $48 and kept a Positive rating on the shares. The firm believes its Q3 revenue and EBITDA loss estimates are safe and sees potential upside coming from a “likely” higher parlay mix, stronger than expected user growth, and favorable calendar shift where 15 more NFL games occurred in Q3 year-over-year.
PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES IN THE SPACE INCLUDE: Accel Entertainment (ACEL), Bally’s (BALY), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Caesars (CZR), Churchill Downs (CHDN), DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Gan Limited (GAN), Genius Sports (GENI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), Penn Entertainment (PENN), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Super Group (SGHC) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).