Fresh on the back of Thursday’s 7/1 winner, Matt Brocklebank picks out the best bets on Friday including a couple on day two of Newmarket’s July Festival.
- Matt Brocklebank’s Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 235pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Friday July 12
2pts win Involvement in 1.50 Newmarket at 13/2 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt win Leadenhall in 2.05 York at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
1pt win Beamish in 3.00 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)
Get involved with Crisford runner
Plenty of intrigue surrounding Friday’s feature Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes but it’s not much of a betting heat and – if anything – I’d probably have Coronation Stakes winner Porta Fortuna even shorter were it my job to price the race up.
That isn’t the case, thankfully, but the prospect of backing three-year-old fillies at short odds doesn’t entice me at all and it’s another Group 1 I’ll be watching from the betting sidelines.
Maw Lam is the closest I came to a recommendation in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, following her 50/1 third in the Queen Mary which was a really eyecatching display given she was slowly away and only got motoring late in the day, but she’s a single-figure price here with James Doyle in for the ride and I can let Adrian Nicholls’ filly win without a financial interest.
The opening bet365 Handicap has been something of a Johnston stable benefit over the years (Mark won it seven times and son Charlie picked up the baton with Killybegs Warrior 12 months ago), but I can’t really fancy this year’s Middleham raider Candle Of Dubai (33/1).
She’s 1lb out of the weights here and just doesn’t strike me as a well-handicapped horse based on her novice form and, although a lot shorter in the market, I’d much rather back INVOLVEMENT for Simon and Ed Crisford.
He looked really quite promising as a two-year-old last term, bolting up in a Redcar maiden first time out and then found just one ridden closer to the pace too good when looking to defy a penalty at Newcastle in November.
He’s not done a whole heap wrong this time around either, beaten less than a length when third in an Epsom novice upped to a mile for the first time in April, beaten by the front-running course specialist Nellie Leylax on handicap debut at Haydock, and then getting a bit lost when left isolated with nothing much to run with in the Britannia last time.
He still ran on well to finish seventh of the 29 runners at Royal Ascot – ending up third in his initial group of nine – and I’m not at all surprised the official handicapper has left him on a mark of 96.
By Lope De Vega, out of Dubawi mare Lady Of Dubai, who won the 2015 Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood, Involvement is bred to improve again for this move to 10 furlongs and I can’t imagine Oisin Murphy will be sent to post with any fears over his mount’s stamina. The Crisford yard just looks to be coming into peak form too.
Beam me up in competitive handicap
BEAMISH has the form to figure prominently in the bet365 Trophy and while that evidence is from a couple of years ago during his time with Paddy Twomey, he’s shown enough for Archie Watson to think he retains the requisite ability.
Granted, he’s only had two starts since the stable switch and has yet to trouble the judge, but he displayed plenty of enthusiasm in a prominent early position on his reappearance run over two miles at Newbury, ultimately weakening inside the last furlong to end up sixth but shaping with promise all the same.
He was then thrust into the melting pot of Royal Ascot, sent off a 50/1 chance for the Copper Horse Handicap, and again appeared to run a bit better than the finishing position implies.
Having said that, he was only beaten six lengths in the end which was highly creditable considering he got badly bumped around on the first bend. He stuck to his task admirably, in fairness to the horse, and the handicapper easing him another couple of pounds looks reasonably generous.
His Group 3 form from Ireland would give him a major chance in a race of this nature off a BHA mark of 102 and it can’t be a bad thing that the son of Teofilo is proven in testing conditions as I’m not convinced it’s going to dry out quite as much as some had hoped in midweek.
The cheekpieces worn for the first time at Ascot are also retained so I’m willing to consider the headgear another potential source of improvement for the lightly-raced six-year-old.
Lead looks value alternative to Fun
There are a couple of ITV races from York and the William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap is a really competitive affair.
Quest For Fun has been on my radar all year as he ended last season looking better than ever and, following some relatively low-key efforts including down at Newmarket in May, he duly returned to form and almost took advantage of his reduced mark back at his favourite course last month.
Held up last early on, he made up considerable ground in the final two and a half furlongs, beaten only half a length by Tolstoy, who reopposes on 5lb worse term, and Tim Easterby’s horse looks a major player back at this venue as he’s clearly adaptable when it comes to the ground.
At more than twice the price, however, it’s tempting to take a punt on Quest For Fun’s stablemate LEADENHALL, who won on good to soft ground at Haydock (Timeform called it good, admittedly) last August and found only one too good at Newmarket when bidding to follow up off his current mark later that month.
Trained by Ralph Beckett at the time, the well-bred brother to Laurel was bought quite cheaply in the autumn and has yet to win from three starts for team Easterby, although there has been promise in all of them, not least when third in a Redcar handicap on his comeback in May.
The front two that day have both won subsequently and the fourth, Elim, was placed in a Listed race at Pontefract this week so it’s decent form and I can excuse Leadenhall his 10-furlong fifth here last month as he didn’t fully see out the trip.
He was in front for a long way in the Carlisle Bell last time out, faring a good deal better than the finishing positions suggests as he was quite free in the early stages. Dropping back again in trip might help him realise that early potential he showed for Juddmonte and I like his draw in four, particularly when compared to Quest For Fun who is housed much wider out in stall 16.
Published at 1600 BST on 11/07/24
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