Tropical Storm Beryl forms.
Tropical Storm Beryl has formed, and it has the potential of becoming the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Given the trends and uncertainty, anyone in the eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and even the Gulf Coast of the U.S. or Mexico should be paying attention between now and the next 14 days. Here’s what you need to know about Beryl as it gains strength.
Expected track for Beryl
According to the National Hurricane Center discussion posted on Saturday morning, “Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday.”
If you currently live or are vacationing in those islands, expect hurricane-force winds, significant rainfall and hazardous ocean conditions. A wise and diligent Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity brother already texted me since his family is currently vacationing in Anguilla.
The NHC discussion goes on to say, “A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Barbados. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, and possibly Warnings, will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later today.”
Beyond the immediate threat, the nation’s top hurricane experts also urge interests in the western and central Caribbean Sea to monitor the system, too. They also caution, “There is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast.”
Tropical cyclone origin points in late June based on climatology.
If you are asking yourself, “Isn’t it early to be talking about the first hurricane of the season?” the answer is yes. Typically, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season forms around August 11, according to NOAA. The genesis region for Beryl is also unusual for this time of year. If a tropical cyclone forms during late June, it is typically in the Gulf of Mexico or near the Bay of Campeche. Beryl formed in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean. We typically expect MDR storms much later in the season.
Warm Atlantic basin in June is an ominous sign for the hurricane season.
Dr. Matthew Rosencrans is the lead hurricane season forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. In an excellent blog, he says, “This year, NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (2), with 17-25 named storms (average is 14), 8-13 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (average is 3). He points to several key factors:
- Reduction of upper-level wind shear due to the onset of La Niña.
- Very warm sea surface temperatures in the MDR and throughout the Atlantic basin.
- A stronger West African Monsoon, which affects the easterly winds associated with late season tropical cyclone formation.
Conditions are favorable for an active hurricane season.
Why are experts like me concerned about Beryl? It will likely be a hurricane within the next several hours, and many people in the eastern Caribbean region may not be prepared for or accustomed to a storm like this in June. Further, the following statement from the National Hurricane Center is worthy of note: “Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification.” Some model guidance even forecasts that Beryl could reach major hurricane status, which is category 3 or higher.
Beyond three days, there is uncertainty due to the models and potential influences of a stronger wind shear environment. There is also divergence in the models. For U.S. Gulf Coast and Mexico, this storm could definitely be a player by the second week of July, so keep a close eye on its development. Where it ultimately goes and its future status will likely depend on how strong it is exiting the central Caribbean region. Our best models have divergent viewpoints right now.
My best advice is to pay attention to credible experts and avoid the wishcasters. The National Hurricane Center is always my initial source of choice. By the way, it is also watching other systems in the Atlantic Basin. Ben Noll, a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand, is right. It’s going to be a long season.