Our form expert has four selections for Saturday’s ITV Racing at Newcastle including in the feature Northumberland Plate.
The Verdict: Saturday, June 29
1pt win City House in 1.35 Newcastle at 17/2 (Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt win Albasheer in 2.04 Newcastle at 10/1 (William Hill)
1pt e.w Too Friendly in 3.10 Newcastle at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5 Bet365, Coral)
1pt win Zip in 3.40 Newcastle at 8/1 (bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Friendly fire in the Plate
It looks an open renewal of the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap at Newcastle and a common theme since the race was switched to the all-weather has been moderately-run races and bunched finishes.
It could be the same again here, as there doesn’t look a strong early gallop on paper, and that could be against the hold-up horses with a nice midfield to prominent pitch likely to be vital.
In this scenario it’s not a race to be bullish about and I’d rather have an each-way bet on one at the bigger prices than take relatively short odds about anything, with James Owen’s TOO FRIENDLY making win and place appeal at 25/1.
I was with this horse at Chester where he was the subject of an almighty gamble, but if anything he travelled too well that day and his goose was cooked in the short straight.
However, he still shaped like a well-handicapped stayer granted the right circumstances and I like what his trainer has done with him subsequently in a bid to get him settled.
Firstly he ran him in a hood over 1m6f at Newmarket where he ran a cracker in second, then he ran without the hood over 1m5f at Hamilton where he ran well in fourth and those runs look to have made him more tractable.
Callum Shepherd and the cheekpieces return here and if he settles better back up at two miles he could have the gears to capitalise off his current mark.
The surface is an unknown, but he won well on the polytrack at Kempton first time up this season and Camelot progeny are 3/10 on the Newcastle Tapeta over 2m+, so encouragement is there.
The Verdict: Back TOO FRIENDLY in the 3.10 Newcastle
On the House in Newcastle opener
It could be a good day for the Gredleys and their CITY HOUSE is worth a bet in the opening Jenningsbet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap over six furlongs.
There should be a very strong pace on here and that’s exactly what City House needs, especially over this distance given he is bred for further and has run half of his career over seven.
However, he quite clearly looks better over six furlongs at this stage and he looks much better on an all-weather surface, too, given the top two efforts of his career both came at Kempton.
One of those was last time out where he was taken off his feet early, but he came home really well and it was a performance that suggested he can strike and soon.
Up just 2lb, I’m not surprised James Fanshawe has identified Newcastle as a next step for him as it looks sure to suit and the Newmarket handler has an excellent 20% strike-rate here.
The Verdict: Back CITY HOUSE in the 1.35 Newcastle
Sheer hope for Watson
Kinross is the best horse running at Newcastle on Saturday and I wasn’t sure whether it was worth taking him on in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes, but as he gets a bit older he’s looking more vulnerable first time up.
He has needed his first run the last two seasons and he comes up against some horses well capable of sinking him if he’s not at his best here, so we’ll have a go against him.
Spycatcher is the obvious one on his best form, but he was disappointing at York and is short enough considering his retrieval mission, while the likes of Montassib and Ramazan might not get the strong pace they crave.
With that in mind the one to be on is Archie Watson’s ALBASHEER who is miles better on the all-weather, so you can immediately forgive him his Wokingham run last week where he was repeatedly stopped in his run anyway.
The son of Shamardal looks 10lb better at Newcastle than anywhere else and I think he’s one of the few horses in this field who can cope off a muddling gallop which could well be the case.
When he beat Fivethousandtoone and Batal Dabai here on January 1 he was well positioned and killed them for speed – not a bad trait to have in your locker in a race like this – while Watson is another trainer with a very good Newcastle record (also 20%).
The Verdict: Back ALBASHEER in the 2.04 Newcastle
Zip to land deserved success
Finally, the consistent ZIP can land his first win of the year in the Pertemps Network Handicap over seven furlongs.
Richard Fahey’s grey has been running with great credit all season and he was second at Haydock (visor off, like here) and Newcastle before he ran into the ultra-progressive English Oak last time.
The good thing is he’s down another pound to 86 which makes him 4lb lower than when he was a neck second in this race last year, where he traded at 1.14 in-running on Betfair when he went clear only for a stablemate to pip him on the line.
He’s been going forward in his races, but with a very strong pace forecast it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Oisin Orr ride him a tad more patiently again, like he did in this race last year, and such tactics could yield a first success of 2024 for the eight-year-old.
The Verdict: Back ZIP in the 3.40 Newcastle
Preview posted at 1515 BST on 28/06/24
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