The global wave of Right-wing populism first emerged in Austria, almost precisely 22 years ago. In 1992, the then-leader of the hard-Right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) Jörg Haider initiated a public referendum called Österreich zuerst, or Austria First. Haider and his party demanded an end to mass immigration, more money for police and law enforcement, and a cap on non-German speaking pupils in state schools.
Whether consciously or unconsciously, Right-wing populists from Trump to Farage have been following in Haider’s footsteps – but he was ahead of them by at least two decades. After being killed in a car crash in 2008, Mr Haider could not witness the ultimate triumph of his former party, which came in first with 28.8 per cent of the vote in yesterday’s federal elections.
For 80 years, every Austrian election was either won by the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) or the Social Democrats (SPÖ); since 1945 for more than half the time they have governed together, in what has become known as a Grand Coalition. They might end up governing together yet again, but it would be a coalition of the losers, with nothing grand about it.
Gone are the days where those two parties could monopolise almost 70 per cent of the vote, and yesterday’s results of 26.3 per cent for the ÖVP and 21.1 per cent for the SPÖ are disasters of historical proportions.
As expected, the triumph of the FPÖ immediately led to the Freedom Party being maligned as Nazis and Putin stooges. But this entirely ignores why voters moved to the Right in such huge numbers.
Among FPÖ voters, polls are showing that 45 per cent based their decision on the party’s programme, 11 per cent said that there is no alternative, and 9 per cent say that the FPÖ “represents my interests.” And what those interests are has changed little since the 1992 referendum: An end to immigration and a policy that puts Austria first.
The coalition government of the conservatives and Greens (who also went down 5.6 percentage points, leaving them with a disappointing 8.3 per cent of the overall share) has been an abject failure in many respects: Measured as GDP per capita, the Austrian economy has shrunk by 1.7 per cent during its tenure, making the country the worst performer among all EU member states.
In the city of Vienna, in state schools up to 70 per cent of pupils do not speak German as their first language. Teachers are at breaking point; instead of educating children, they are forced to be social workers. Younger voters shifted to the FPÖ most dramatically: the party is now the most popular choice both among voters under 34 and among voters aged of 35 and 59.
The FPÖ’s success can be attributed to three main factors. Firstly, their strong stance on migration. As a nationalist party unafraid to discuss “remigration,” they’ve always had substantial support from those favoring closed borders over open ones.
Secondly, the Covid policies of the ruling Conservative-Green coalition, which have been some of the strictest in Europe. Under Herbert Kickl’s leadership, the FPÖ positioned itself as a vocal critic of these policies, further fueled by the government’s harsh rhetoric about an “epidemic of the unvaccinated” and the near-implementation of a compulsory federal vaccine mandate.
Even though Covid is now a distant memory for many, a segment of the population ardently opposed to those policies now supports the FPÖ. Lastly, voter mobilisation played a crucial role. With a voter turnout nearing 80 per cent, it appears that many former non-voters were drawn to the FPÖ.
Additionally, a growing sense of pessimism, with six out of ten Austrians dissatisfied with the country’s direction, contributed to their rise.
The FPÖ approach has been much criticised for being receptive to conspiracy theories and for taking a lenient stance toward Vladimir Putin. These criticisms are not without foundation, as the FPÖ has proposed some controversial measures, such as cutting financial support for Ukraine to address budget shortfalls.
Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether these positions have negatively impacted their voter base. What is clear, however, is that the Nazi-argument is difficult to maintain for what is increasingly becoming the party of the young. Whatever old Nazis are still around, they are more likely to vote for the ÖVP or the SPÖ at this point, so the idea that it is only elderly reactionaries who cast their ballot for the Freedom Party is obviously false.
But there is more: The Greens and the Social Democrats had some strong regional showings, especially in the more affluent parts of both Vienna and the wider country, but in working class districts the FPÖ made its most significant gains.
The Austrian Left, like its counterpart in Germany, is increasingly becoming the party of the wealthy, while the Right is absorbing the working-class vote. In the long run, this will spell the end of the Social Democratic movement in the German speaking parts of Europe, because you cannot be a working-class party in name and a woke-class party in your programme forever. People will eventually catch on to the “internal contradiction”, as Marx would have said. As the generation of over 60-year-olds is slowly dying out, so will the Social Democrats.
Despite its success, the FPÖ will most likely not find itself in government anytime soon, because the positions that make them popular with the voters, also make them party-non-grata for potential coalition partners. Given the final results, a return of the Grand Coalition is possible, albeit with the slimmest of possible majorities. More likely is an inclusion of the liberal party as a third member, marking yet another first in Austrian politics, a three-party coalition.
It is far from certain that excluding the FPÖ, the strongest party in parliament, from governing will weaken them. Historically, the FPÖ has thrived in opposition. A triple-coalition would be unprecedented and unstable – the Social Democrats have moved significantly Leftward, complicating potential partnerships with Right-of-center liberals and conservatives.
A coalition formed solely to exclude the FPÖ, without a clear plan or cohesive program, risks further alienating voters. This could backfire and potentially boost the FPÖ‘s support to over 30 per cent in the next elections.
The same voter disillusionment on immigration, law and order, and multiculturalism that has turned the FPÖ into Austria’s largest party are witnessed across Europe. Don’t be surprised if the populists start winning closer to your home soon.