Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Bashar Assad were once friends, but the Turkish leader backed the rebellion when it erupted nearly 14 years ago — mainly because Turkey’s geopolitical rival Iran supported the Syrian regime.
Turkey has been the key patron of Syria’s armed Islamist opposition groups. And as the war developed and the moderate and more secular pro-democracy rebel factions fell by the wayside or were outmaneuvered by their tougher and more disciplined Islamist rivals, Ankara’s hand has grown stronger. Assad’s downfall will now likely help Erdoğan advance his geopolitical agenda, offering him the opportunity to achieve several strategic goals, including the curbing of Kurdish separatists in northeastern Syria who have close ties with Turkey’s Kurdish separatists. The needed reconstruction will also prove a bonanza for Turkish businesses.
“Huge win for Türkiye — genius move by Erdoğan,” said Timothy Ash, economist and commentator, in a posting on X.
Israel
Iran has been quick to accuse Israel of engineering Assad’s ouster; when Aleppo fell to the rebels, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said it was a “plot by the Israeli regime to destabilize the region.” While it’s convenient for Tehran to blame Zionists— and Israel’s military humiliation of Hezbollah certainly helped the rebels in Syria — there’s no evidence of direct Israeli military assistance. Moreover, such aid wouldn’t have been needed given Turkey’s patronage of the rebels.
Nonetheless, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu took a deep bow for Assad’s ouster, saying the Syrian leader’s fall “is the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its oppression.” He emphasized, however, that despite the great opportunity offered by this “historic day,” it is “also fraught with significant dangers.” He ordered Israeli troops to take over Syrian army positions after they were abandoned in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights, in order to “ensure no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel,” and to stand ready for any chaos that might erupt in Syria.
Assad’s ouster clearly benefits Israel. It marks a further weakening of Iran’s regional power and takes out an important member of Tehran’s so-called axis of resistance. Without Assad and a friendly regime in Syria, Iran will have no land routes to resupply its partner Hezbollah to assist the group in its war with Israel, making the militant Lebanese Shiite movement another clear loser of Assad’s downfall. That could also make Lebanon a winner, if the country is able to escape Hezbollah’s grasp become a more normal country.