Second, Ike is the only hope of the Red Sea re-opening to world trade. So far the big ship and her air wing have flown more than 12,100 sorties and launched more than 400 missiles on top of the 100 launched from the ships of her strike group. These efforts have been the central part of Operation Poseidon Archer, the US-led effort to smash Houthi missile and drone capabilities inland before they can be fired.
The Houthis have not been suppressed, but that’s not down to lack of effort. It’s because the Houthi weapon systems are mobile, concealed and numerous and therefore impossible to neutralise entirely without employing a (much) heavier weight of fire or ‘boots on the ground’, both of which remain politically unacceptable. In turn, this means that Poseidon Archer’s defensive sibling, Operation Prosperity Guardian, can’t guarantee safe passage for shipping.
The third reason this remains relevant is because overall shipping numbers remain down by 50 per cent and for high-value ships such as gas carriers and container ships, over 90 per cent. This no longer captures the headlines as it is being perceived as the new normal, but it shouldn’t be. Prices continue to climb, fleets continue to be stretched and shipping companies, despite being able to profit in the short term, say going around Africa isn’t sustainable in the long term and want to go back through Suez.
For now though, they are right not to be running the gauntlet. Just three days ago the Houthis struck a ship loaded with grain heading for Iran proving that they can still out-manoeuvre Poseidon Archer – but also proving that they have no real idea who they’re aiming at.
The fourth reason to keep an eye on events there is because things just got worse with the Houthis adding an Iranian-supplied “hypersonic” missile to the mix of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles already used. This isn’t the first time they’ve made bold claims – indeed only the other day they claimed they had hit the Eisenhower so we know that much of what they say is false, but now a “Palestine” hypersonic has been tracked in flight between Western Yemen and the Israeli port of Eilat. It missed, but this is still a significant development.
Hypersonic is strictly defined as travelling over Mach 5. The “Palestine” missile as it’s being called may be able to go this fast, but it probably isn’t massively dangerous. A dangerous hypersonic can not only beat Mach 5 but do so in certain flight regimes – for instance beating Mach 5 while also manoeuvring aggressively in the upper atmosphere, making it hard to track and hit. A missile which could go at Mach 5 close to sea level – while also managing somehow to receive information through its self-generated cloak of superhot plasma – would also be a very dangerous thing. It’s highly unlikely that the “Palestine” can do anything like this: but either way, the ships stationed down there on constant high alert for missiles have yet one more threat to deal with.
And it is always possible that the Iranians have supplied their Houthi pawns with something tricky. Given the US Army Patriot missile’s success against the Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile, there is an assumption that the US Navy’s top-end SM-6 interceptor could defeat lower-end hypersonics but that’s all it is, an assumption. And we know for sure that none of the other international warships there could beat a true hypersonic. Having just three ships who ‘might be able’ to defeat this new threat is not going to reassure the shipping companies.
To make matters worse, analysis of the launch also showed plumes of white exhaust smoke which missile experts say indicates a solid-fuel missile. These are more reliable and much faster to get ready to shoot than their liquid-fuelled equivalents, making Poseidon Archer’s job of detecting and smacking them before launch even harder than it was already.
Between running an outstanding personal X-was-Twitter account, handing out cookies and reassuring everyone that they have not been sunk, Captain Chowdah Hill – captain of the Ike – will be putting a lot of effort into scouring the mountains and plains of Western Yemen for evidence of these launchers.