Dissanayake, the 56-year-old leader of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, secured a narrow victory in the presidential election after counting of votes entered a second round – another first in the island nation’s history.
Sri Lanka’s election commission formally announced the results on Sunday evening, confirming that Dissanayake had defeated incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe.
The commission said on its website that Dissanayake won the presidency with 42.31% of the vote, pushing opposition leader Sajith Premadasa to second place and Wickremesinghe to a distant third. Dissanayake is due to be sworn-in on Monday.
The election, which was dubbed a three-cornered contest, was seen as a referendum on the economic reforms aimed at steering Sri Lanka out of its severe economic crisis. Many voters were primarily concerned with the soaring inflation, escalating cost of living, and rising poverty in the country.
Dissanayake’s victory marks a significant shift in Sri Lankan politics, as the country grapples with the aftermath of the mass protests that ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022.
The new president will face the challenge of steering the country towards economic recovery while addressing the pressing issues of inflation and the cost of living.
What is his stance on India?
Dissanayake is the leader of the historically anti-India Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
JVP’s founding leader, the late Rohana Wijeweera, lectured on “Indian expansionism” during the 1980s and the lessons portrayed India as an “enemy of Sri Lankan interests”. The party also vehemently opposed the Indo-Lanka accord of 1987 – signed by Sri Lanka’s then-president JR Jayewardene and India’s Rajiv Gandhi.
JVP led an insurrection rooted in opposition to Indian influence over Sri Lanka after the signing of the accord. It was violently put down by government forces.
Despite his party’s anti-India record and pro-China leaning, Dissanayake has expressed a desire to engage with India and maintain cordial relations.
The new Sri Lanka president has signaled a shift in stance, indicating readiness to work with diverse international actors, including India, which has a significant interest in Sri Lanka. He, however, has also stated that Sri Lanka will not become subordinate to any power in the geopolitical race between India and China.
In interviews to media outlets in the run up to the elections, Dissanayake has outlined his key policies:
- Ensuring Sri Lanka’s sea, land, and airspace are not used in ways that threaten India or regional stability.
- Carefully considering the impact of economic measures on Sri Lanka while recognizing the importance of India’s support in development efforts.
- Safeguarding regional security while leveraging economic opportunities to Sri Lanka’s advantage.
- Adopting a strong foreign policy that aligns with global conditions and serves Sri Lanka’s national interests effectively.
Trip to India
In early February 2024, Dissanayake visited New Delhi on an invitation from the Indian government, meeting with external affairs minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.
During the meeting, they discussed bilateral relations and the mutual benefits of further deepening ties. Jaishankar emphasised that India, with its Neighbourhood First and SAGAR policies, will always be a reliable friend and trusted partner of Sri Lanka.
Responding to media queries after returning from New Delhi, Dissanayake had insisted that high-level meetings with India did not indicate a changes in the party’s “political or economical policies”.
“We can gain a lot from India when it comes to sectors such as information technology,” he had said, adding that NPP was hoping for India’s assistance in such areas.
“We are hoping to transform the country by leading the people, and in this transformation we need international support … we will need capital and technology. We can’t win as an isolated country, we need to strengthen international relations,” Dissanayake said.
Balancing act
Dissanayake’s diplomatic approach represents a significant departure from the strategies employed by previous Sri Lankan leaders. Unlike his predecessors, Dissanayake has embraced a more proactive and balanced foreign policy that aims to strengthen ties with diverse global powers, including India and China.
Past Sri Lankan leaders have often been perceived as aligning more closely with either India or China, leading to concerns about over-dependence and geopolitical tensions. Dissanayake’s balanced approach represents a significant shift in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, emphasising nonalignment, and the pursuit of Sri Lanka’s national interests on the global stage.
- Nonaligned foreign policy: Central to Dissanayake’s strategy is a commitment to a nonaligned foreign policy. This approach seeks to maintain a delicate balance between India and China, allowing Sri Lanka to engage with both powers without becoming overly dependent on either. Dissanayake’s recent diplomatic outreach to India, including a visit in February 2024, reflects this strategy. During his meetings with Indian officials, he emphasised the importance of strengthening bilateral ties while ensuring that Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and interests are upheld.
- Economic engagement: Dissanayake recognises the economic significance of both India and China for Sri Lanka’s recovery from its recent economic crisis. He has expressed intentions to invite foreign investment in sectors where Sri Lanka lacks capacity, such as renewable energy. By fostering economic partnerships with both nations, he aims to leverage their investments for national development. This pragmatic approach is designed to enhance Sri Lanka’s economic resilience while avoiding the pitfalls of debt dependency that have characterized past engagements, particularly with China.
- National/maritime security: Dissanayake has assured that his administration will maintain cordial relations with India concerning national security and defense. This assurance is crucial given India’s historical concerns about China’s increasing influence in the region, particularly following the controversial leasing of Hambantota Port to a Chinese firm. Dissanayake’s stance suggests an awareness of India’s strategic interests and a desire to mitigate any potential security risks arising from China’s presence in Sri Lanka.