Remarks by the IDF’s chief of staff to Israeli forces on the northern border have given the impression a ground invasion of Lebanon could be close.
“Your military boots will enter enemy territory, enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts,” Lt General Herzi Halevi told troops.
“Your entry into those areas with force, your encounter with Hezbollah operatives, will show them what it means to face a professional, highly skilled and battle experienced force.”
Follow latest: ‘We are striking Lebanon to prepare for possible invasion’
It might sound like an eve of war speech, but there are signs the order to move is yet to come.
Openly alerting Hezbollah to an imminent invasion would be a strange tactic but Halevi’s statement won’t have gone unnoticed north of the border.
In war, words can be as powerful as any weapon.
Over recent days, Israeli fighter jets have taken out senior Hezbollah commanders, weapons stockpiles and infrastructure.
All this degrades Hezbollah’s ability to fight and softens the enemy ahead of an invasion, were one ordered. It is a common military tactic in the opening days of war.
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
The call-up of two reserve brigades today is also a logical step if a ground invasion is coming – they will provide support and backup to the divisions already positioned on the border.
Israel has had a very successful eight days in the air, but Hezbollah continues to fire missiles deep into Israel, targeting the Tel Aviv area for the first time today, and so other options of escalation are being considered.
Although a ground invasion would be the last resort, we are nearing that moment if the situation doesn’t change because, if nothing else, Israel now has fewer cards to play.
As I write, Benjamin Netanyahu is still due to travel to New York on Thursday to address the UN General Assembly, but someone in his office told me earlier that travel plans are changing hour by hour as the situation develops.
Would he leave the country if the army is about to enter Lebanon? Unlikely.
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If he does take off for the US east coast, he will use the trip to speak in private with allies and use the UN platform to remind the world what happened on 7 October.
There are finally early signs this evening of some diplomatic movement – President Biden is reportedly close to delivering a proposal for a pause in the fighting.
It could be published as soon as tonight, however, given the US’s track record of late, expectations of a ceasefire are low.
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That said, Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed his close ally Ron Dermer to inform the White House that Israel is willing to listen.
That could be genuine but Netanyahu probably expects Hezbollah to reject any offer, so it might also be a tactic to give a future ground invasion more legitimacy if Israel can argue that Hezbollah turned down offers to talk.
We can say with some certainty that Israel has approved plans for an invasion of Lebanon and Israel’s forces are poised for the order to move, but we don’t know when that order will come – if at all.