A Worst-Case Hurricane Scenario Could Be Emerging For Tampa Bay

Tropical Storm Milton is gathering strength in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become a hurricane within the next day or so. Unlike many tropical systems, it will move west to east over much of the Gulf of Mexico, so it has plenty of warm water ahead of it. The official hurricane track issued by the National Hurricane Center is a potential worst-case scenario for the Tampa Bay region of Florida, and winds could be 120 mph or greater.

My first Sunday morning views of Milton from weather satellites suggest that the storm is showing signs of intensification. The NHC discussion wrote, “Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.” What are some of the details? The storm is much smaller in size than Helene, which means that it can strengthen or weaken rapidly.

Additionally, the water temperatures are warm enough to fuel this storm, but NHC cautioned, “While the cyclone is going to be in a favorable environment through about 60 hours, it will encounter strong shear and dry air entrainment after that time.” There is still some spread in the track and intensity forecast, but the official prediction brings the storm directly into the Tampa Bay region as a major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane. The storm will eventually weaken over and undergo extratropical transition. However, impacts will extend beyond the west coast of Florida.

Candidly, I awoke this morning hoping to see a dramatic shift in models and data. I haven’t. Right now, this is shaping up as a potential worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay, but we are still four days out so expect wiggles and track adjustments. The average track error decreases as the storm get closer to landfall. If the scenario pans out, it is not anything that a current resident of the region has likely experienced. Helene was a devastating storm for parts of the region, and it was never close to making a direct landfall in the peninsula. According to the Associated Press, the last time the Tampa Bay area was directly struck by a major hurricane was 1921.

Milton will feature the full suite of hurricane impacts. Focus on the extent of possible impacts rather than the line or cone. Surge and wind conditions are most extreme on the “dirty” side of the eye, which is to the right of center. I expect hurricane watches or warnings to be issued later today for Florida. The new experimental cone issued by the National Hurricane Center includes the counties under watches and warning. It is better, in my view, at show the extent of impacts from extreme winds, storm surge, tornadoes and flooding.

The flooding with this storm will be particularly bad as rain will begin well ahead of the hurricane. Water (surge and inland freshwater flooding) is the deadliest aspect of a hurricane, but wind speeds and Saffir-Simpson category often dominate the headlines. Weather expert Ben Noll estimates that five October’s worth of rainfall is possible in some areas. The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon or evening, but conditions will go downhill well ahead of that timeframe. The storm exits the peninsula by early Thursday. Locations throughout the peninsula such as Orlando, Daytona Beach, and Jackson will be affected.

I value my credibility, and this piece feels hyperbolic in some ways. I am hopeful that this is the biggest forecast bust in history for the sake of the Tampa region. If you are feeling helpless or overwhelmed in the region, here are some things that you can do right now:

• Understand the evacuation maps for Tampa, Hillsborough County or your area.
• Identify whether you live in a flood zone.
• Know your evacuation plan and anticipate traffic.
• Gas up and charge phones/EVs.
• Retrieve valuable papers/insurance documents.
• Monitor local emergency management guidance and the National Hurricane Center to make a go/no go decisions within the next 12-24 hours.

Meteorologist Craig Setzer posted the perfect point, “That’s the issue with hurricane preps, we often must prepare over a larger area well before we know for sure exactly who will get hit the hardest.?

By the way, it is not unusual to have a hurricane in October. It is still hurricane season. Here is what’s different. Storms are rapidly intensifying. Waters in places like the Gulf of Mexico are anomalously warm. A significant amount of the climate warming is in the oceans, and that is increasing the ocean heat content. On average, it now rains harder due to the basic physics of a warming atmosphere. And finally, there is more infrastructure and people in the path of this evolving generation of hurricanes. In 1921, the Tampa Bay region had 300,000 residents. It now has over 3 million.