Topline
A majority of voters, including many Democrats, have lost confidence in President Joe Biden’s mental capabilities after his universally panned debate performance Thursday, according to post-debate surveys—as polling averages show former President Donald Trump has almost doubled his narrow lead in the wake of the face-off.
President Joe Biden participates in the CNN Presidential Debate on June 27, 2024, in Atlanta, … [+]
Key Facts
Some 66% of registered voters have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness after the debate, a 12-point increase from May, while 74% say Biden is showing he is too old to be president (up 11 points from May), and 54% believe he is getting worse as president, a five-point increase from May, according to a Friday-Sunday Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll of 2,090 registered voters.
Trump’s six-point lead in a two-way matchup remains unchanged from May, as both Biden and Trump have lost two points since last month, according to the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll.
The poll still showed warning signs for Biden even if the head-to-head race hasn’t changed: 40% of voters are more likely to back Trump after the debate, and 26% are less likely to support him, compared to 23% of respondents who said they were more likely to vote for Biden and 42% who said they were less likely to vote for Biden.
Almost three-quarters (72%) of voters polled by CBS/YouGov on Friday and Saturday said Biden should not be running for president, compared to 63% who said the same in February, with nearly half (46%) of Democrats polled saying he should not run, a 10-point increase since February.
Among Democrats, 41% said Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, compared to 29% who said the same in June, according to the CBS/YouGov poll; some 72% of all voters said Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, compared to 49% who said the same about Trump.
In an Ipsos poll of more than 2,500 likely voters taken after the debate, only 20% of voters described Biden’s mental fitness as “good” or “excellent,” a seven-point drop from the group’s previous survey taken days before the debate—the sentiment dipped even more among Democrats, with 42% saying they believe Biden is mentally fit, compared to 56% who said the same in the previous poll.
Nearly half (47%) of Democratic voters, and 60% of voters as a whole polled by Morning Consult in a survey conducted a day after the debate said Biden should “probably” or “definitely” be replaced, while 78% of voters said Biden is too old, a 14-point increase from a pre-debate Morning Consult poll.
Big Number
2.3 points. That’s Trump’s national lead over Biden as of Tuesday, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, a 0.8-point swing in Trump’s favor from Thursday, before the debate. Trump now leads by 1.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, up from 0.7 points Thursday.
Surprising Fact
Progressive Our Revolution PAC surveyed its supporters in the three days after the debate, and 67% of the 17,000 respondents said Biden should suspend his campaign, Politico reported Tuesday, though only 32% said they were less likely to support Biden after the debate and 57% said it didn’t affect their support.
Key Background
Biden and prominent Democrats—including federal elected officials and governors whose names are floated as his potential replacements—are digging in after Thursday’s debate, despite calls from multiple major newspapers and columnists urging him to step aside and predicting that if he doesn’t, Trump will win the November election. Biden hunkered down with family at Camp David over the weekend, and has made several public appearances since Thursday’s debate, though in most of them, he’s delivered prepared remarks and has not taken impromptu questions from the press. Trump, meanwhile, notched a win in court Monday when the Supreme Court granted him partial immunity in his federal election fraud case, heightening fears that Trump’s powers if he wins in November could go unchecked as he’s promising an even more extreme version of the policies he deployed in his first term.
Further Reading
Can Democrats Replace Biden? Here’s What Would Happen If Biden Leaves 2024 Race. (Forbes)
Biden Loses Train Of Thought And Corrects Himself Repeatedly In Debate With Trump (Forbes)