Russian industry still manages to build large numbers of big submarines. But new Russian surface ships tend to be patrol vessels, corvettes and frigates that displace just a few thousand tons – making them at most a third the size of one of the US Navy’s 70 or so Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
Moscow’s naval ambitions have shrunk alongside its ships. More and more, the Russian navy is a coastal navy.
The main reason for the steady shrinkage of individual Russian ships, and Russian naval strategy, is that Russian industry struggles to build maritime engines of sufficient size and reliability to propel anything bigger than a frigate. Prior to 2022, Russia imported most of its maritime engines from Ukraine.
Russian warships are so unreliable that the Russian fleet takes pains to maintain a huge fleet of oceangoing tugboats whose roles include taking under tow warships whose engines fail during deployments. The Russian navy’s tug fleet displaces around 150,000 tons overall, making it bigger than the entire Canadian navy.
So yes, the Russian navy should take delivery of a dozen new warships this year. Four are subs, but most of the rest are corvettes. Considering that the Ukrainians have, so far this year, destroyed at least three surface ships belonging to the Russian Black Sea Fleet – two corvettes and a landing ship – it’s possible the Russian navy’s tonnage growth this year will be marginal if not actually flat.
Incredibly, this should represent a major improvement over 2022, a year when the Russian navy actually shrank – owing mostly to the loss of the 11,000-ton Moskva.
The long decline of the Russian navy continues, with the exception of the submarine fleet.