In 2018, England’s opponents in the knockout stages were Colombia (ranked 16th), Sweden (24th) and Croatia (20th). Eventual winners France, by contrast, had to come through tricky ties against Argentina (5th), Uruguay (14th) and Belgium (3rd) to reach the final.
In other words, England’s path to the semi-final was, statistically speaking, almost three times easier than France’s route.
It was a similar story three years later. In 2021, England’s route to the final of the Euros brought them face-to-face with Germany (12th), Ukraine (24th) and Denmark (10th) before the final with Italy. On the other half of the draw, Italy had to beat Austria (23rd), Belgium (1st) and Spain (6th) to reach the final, which was held at England’s home of Wembley.
The World Cup in 2022 was, it must be said, a different story. Of the eight teams that reached the quarter-finals, England’s fixtures were the second most difficult on average, behind Morocco.
Southgate’s critics will understandably point out, though, that England fell at the first significant hurdle. France were the first team in the world’s top 15 that England came up against in Qatar, and they lost 2-1 in that quarter-final.
England’s record against top teams at international tournaments is not a good one. In major finals under Southgate, the highest-ranked team they have beaten away from the home comforts of Wembley is Colombia, in a penalty shootout, in 2018.
Of course, if England are to go all the way in Germany it will require breaking this run of disappointing results against the big boys of the international game. But, given their poor performances so far at this tournament, the twist of fate that placed them in the easier side of the draw will be most welcome.
It will rightly be regarded as a stroke of luck, once again, for England at a major tournament under Gareth Southgate. Now, unlike in previous tournaments, they must take full advantage of the favourable hand they have been dealt.