A cracking day’s racing to look forward to at Royal Ascot on Tuesday and our value-seeker has four selections on the opening afternoon.
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Value Bet tips: Tuesday June 18
1pt win Rashabar in 3.05 Royal Ascot at 66/1 (General)
1pt win Diligent Harry in 3.45 Royal Ascot at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Tritonic in 5.05 Royal Ascot at 16/1 (bet365)
1pt win Intinso in 6.15 Royal Ascot at 14/1 (General)
Be Diligent in form study
Royal Ascot remains the single best Flat meeting at which punters get the chance to back very good horses at very big prices and, starting as we mean to go on in this column, DILIGENT HARRY is surely being underestimated in the market on day one.
Granted, his trainer Clive Cox – successful in the newly-named King Charles III Stakes with Profitable in 2016 – does have another genuine contender in Temple Stakes winner Kerdos (10/1), but he’s only 1lb superior to his stablemate according to Timeform, and the official handicapper actually has Diligent Harry 2lb higher than Kerdos.
There clearly isn’t much in it on all known form and while the four-year-old Kerdos has a bit more room for improvement seeing as he’s made fewer starts, Diligent Harry looks better than ever at six this time around and, most importantly, he’s more than twice the price at 25/1.
Those odds don’t seem to make much sense as he lines up on the back of what looks a career-best effort when just denied in a tight finish to the Duke of York Stakes, leading for a few strides late on before being edged out by Mill Stream and Shouldvebeenaring, who are a best-priced 5/1 and 12s for Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over six furlongs.
With a strike-rate of 2-4 at five furlongs, Diligent Harry appeared desperate for a drop back to the minimum trip on the Knavesmire and did look really good when winning a Listed race at Southwell on his most recent run over the distance towards the end of February.
In between Southwell and York, he ran a belter in the Al Quoz Sprint out in Meydan, when third to the brilliant California Spangle, a horse Believing (a 7/1 shot here) couldn’t get close to at Sha Tin the following month.
Diligent Harry has had just the two starts in cheekpieces which are seemingly helping him focus through the mid-part of his races, and I can overlook the fact he’s been well held on his two previous visits to Ascot as he faced too much of a stamina test on both occasions, one of which was due to bad ground.
Good to firm conditions look ideal for the horse on Tuesday and, having been handed stall seven, I like the fact he’s drawn quite close to out-and-out speedball Crimson Advocate, and right in between market leader Big Evs and aforementioned stable companion Kerdos.
There’s plenty in place for him to run a huge race under Rossa Ryan.
A slightly Rash selection
I can’t have too many arguments with the market for the Queen Anne Stakes, where Maljoom is the only real ‘sleeper’ who could be sitting on a massive performance, and the same applies in what looks a strong running of the St James’s Palace Stakes; no bet the obvious conclusion.
The Coventry Stakes is, admittedly, something of a guessing game but I think Brian Meehan’s RASHABAR is worth a dart at a wild price in one of the meeting’s principal juvenile races.
The betting doesn’t miss many Coventry winners but surprises can happen here occasionally and Nando Parrado was a 150/1-winning maiden only four years ago, so the fact Rashabar has yet to register from two racecourse visits doesn’t entirely put me off.
A 120,000-euro son of Holy Roman Emperor, his (unraced) dam was closely related to a few pattern-race performers and I’m convinced we’ve not seen anything like the best of this sizeable colt yet.
His debut third to Hawaiian, when splitting subsequent winners Star Anthem and Running Queen, was a run I was keen to mark up as he shaped really well before being buffeted about late on, while he was arguably the best horse in the race at Chester last month.
Drawn widest of all, he wasn’t the sharpest away and was fighting a losing battle from that point on really, but did come home with purpose to be beaten just over two lengths by Teej A, to whom he was conceding 5lb.
Karl Burke’s filly has since come out and won the Woodcote at Epsom so we’re obviously dealing with a really nice two-year-old in Rashabar. He wouldn’t be coming for the Coventry if that wasn’t the case I suppose, but there’s a good chance he’s being overlooked on account of the form figures next to his name – and they certainly don’t tell the whole tale.
Whether he can find the requisite improvement to be a factor in this sort of company remains to be seen but I’m happy to pay a small amount at 50/1-plus in order to find out.
In at first you don’t succeed…
From one extreme to another in some respects, as we know a whole lot more about the ability of seven-year-old TRITONIC, but Alan King’s versatile horse looks the one to be on in this year’s Ascot Stakes.
Third in the same race 12 months ago, he returns off a 5lb lower mark and is able to run off his lowest Flat rating since finishing second here as a three-year-old in the Golden Gates Handicap over 10 furlongs. He’s won a couple of times over hurdles here in the meantime too so we know he likes the place, and he goes on any ground which is a bonus.
A winner over fences during the winter, Tritonic has had the perfect prep for another crack at this contest following staying-on efforts over two miles at Kempton and Southwell.
Those all-weather races rarely develop into genuine tests of stamina but that should definitely be the case back up to two and a half here, and King sticks cheekpieces back on the chestnut for the big day too which may help sharpen him up again.
Keep it in the family
The final two races on Tuesday look incredibly tough but Willie Mullins has done punters plenty of favours here over the years and Belloccio is bound to be popular under William Buick in the Copper Horse Handicap.
He’d possibly be more effective with some dig in the ground, though, and I’ll take the well-backed favourite on with INTINSO.
John and Thady Gosden, together with Hollie Doyle, won the same race with this horse’s half-brother Amtiyaz in 2021 and, like that one, Intinso made a decent amount of progress while running on the all-weather through the winter months.
Far too keen at times earlier in his career, there was still a hint of that when winning at Wolverhampton but he backed that up with an excellent third in a strong race over a shorter trip at Kempton before trying a mile and three-quarters for the first time at Newmarket last month.
Eventually worn down by Bague d’Or (balloted out of this), the grey was picked off late after making the running but I think taking a lead in a bigger field around here will help and it’s interesting to see connections are adding a tongue-tie (the stable has a tidy 17-94 strike-rate with a first-time tongue-tie).
Providing he’s away well enough from a potentially tricky draw down in stall two, he’s fancied to sit mid-pack before seeing this out best to emulate his sibling.
Published at 1600 BST on 17/06/24
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