Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 55.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
The Celtics don’t like losing, and the bouncebacks they have after losses are usually pretty impressive. Boston led the NBA in average margin of victory after a loss at plus-12.7 points, and you don’t create that kind of blowout without a fast start. Just look at their games after losses in this postseason, dropping 63 in the first half on Miami, and 57 on Cleveland.
The Celtics have also brought focused starts into their closeout games in these playoffs, scoring 68, 58, and 58 again in the first halves of their clinching wins. Regardless of how tonight’s game plays out, I think Boston brings their A game to start, and gets over this isolated total.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Dallas Mavericks/Boston Celtics First Quarter Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
If Boston gets out to the hot start I’m anticipating, then the first quarter will have plenty of scoring as usual. First quarters of this Finals series have been the most consistently high-scoring, and a fast start from the Celtics will help keep that the case tonight. The miniscule hopes that the Mavericks have are based on their offense repeating Friday’s eruption, so if they’ve also finally found their groove then this first quarter should be a shootout.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Wings/Minnesota Lynx First Half Under 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Lynx are a scary team when they get rolling downhill, and have buried many teams this season with second-half runs. But a recent tendency towards slow starts is a little concerning, and I think we see it create a lower-scoring first half tonight. Their past three home games, including against the Wings, have seen Minnesota score far more after halftime than before. But they can shut opponents down at any time, and I think a dejected and broken Dallas team comes out lacking energy as well. Poor defense for the Wings causes their totals to be lined pretty high, but I’m looking the opposite direction here and sensing another slower start out of both teams.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2332-2150 ATS (+89.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.