The UK economy flatlined in April, held back by wet weather, as the signs of a recovery from last year’s recession began to fade.
In a blow to Rishi Sunak’s hopes of signalling a strong bounceback before the general election next month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said monthly growth slowed after a 0.4% increase in March.
The economy was unable to maintain its momentum after being weighed down by the struggling retail sector, a downturn in manufacturing and a drop in construction output.
The 0.0% growth figure matched the forecast by City economists, who blamed the month’s heavy rains for difficulties faced by workers on building sites and the lack of shoppers on the high street.
Paul Dales, the chief UK economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the economy could begin to grow again during the summer.
“Despite the stalling of the recovery in April, the dual drags on economic growth from higher interest rates and higher inflation will continue to fade throughout the year. That will generate a bit of an economic tailwind for the next government,” he said.
Manufacturing output fell by 1.4% month on month, while construction activity was 1.4% lower and retailers lost 2.0% of their trade.
These declines were balanced out by a 2% rise across the whole services sector, boosted by rises in IT and communication services, professional businesses (1.2%), and arts and entertainment (2.6%).
Separate surveys of private sector businesses show most areas of the economy have expanded month on month since the beginning of the year.
after newsletter promotion
Figures released last month showed the economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of the year – the strongest rate of quarterly growth since the end of 2021.
Suren Thiru, the economics director at the accountancy body the ICAEW, said April’s zero growth rate in national income, or gross domestic product (GDP), was unlikely to encourage the Bank of England to cut interest rates at its meeting later this month.
“Despite these disappointing GDP figures, a June interest rate cut looks improbable with the Bank of England likely to be a little wary of shifting policy in the middle of a general election campaign.”