Quite how much the threat from turbulence has increased is not entirely clear. Iata was not able to supply data on people hurt by turbulence, but says it is the biggest cause of in-cabin injuries, alongside burns from hot drinks and strains from lifting heavy bags.
The US Federal Aviation Administration lists 163 injuries as having been caused by turbulence in the 10 years to 2022, with the majority suffered by cabin crew and only 34 by passengers – fewer than the number hospitalised in the Singapore Airlines case.
At Emirates, however, Sir Tim says the trend has been clear for some time, and well in advance of the Singapore flight.
He said: “Well before that there was evidence that we were beginning to see a ticking up of the amount of turbulence. People say it’s climate change, some people say it’s because we’ve got many more flights than we used to have. But the fact is the incidence is going up.”
Sir Tim said that passengers will definitely see an increase in warnings flashing up on seat-back screens, and a propensity for pilots to be more proactive in feeding information to cabin crew and travellers.
Attendees flying to the Iata meeting with Emirates were regularly reminded about the virtues of buckling up, while seat-belt signs flashed on at the slightest sign of bumpy air.
At the same time, in-flight displays continued to extol the virtues of a mid-flight stroll (said to guard against the risk of deep vein thrombosis), and the sight of parents leading a bored toddler around the cavernous cabin of an A380 superjumbo remained as common as ever.
Iata is banking on its Turbulence Aware initiative, launched in 2018, to help alert carriers to the location of turbulent air pockets.
While only 21 of the group’s 330 members have so far signed up to the platform, which uses data from thousands of flights to provide real-time information on optimal flight paths, it says there has been a surge of interest following the Singapore incident.
Sir Tim Clark said real-time data is all well and good, but that airlines really need advance information on where turbulence might occur.
Artificial intelligence able to provide forecasts based on an analysis of weather patterns and the jet stream may hold the key.
He said: “We’re trying to use a bit of AI to give us a predictive analytic capability with regard to where turbulence is, but it’s very difficult.”
Whether turbulence is more common may be a matter of debate. But the warning to buckle up midway through a journey seems likely to become increasingly common.